1. FC Heidenheim 1-2 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 20 as 1. FC Heidenheim welcome Borussia Dortmund to Voith-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 February 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Heidenheim stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 3W 1D 6L at Voith-Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — 1. FC Heidenheim are significantly better at Voith-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Borussia Dortmund — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Borussia Dortmund are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for 1. FC Heidenheim, 1 for Borussia Dortmund and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2024, ended 2–4 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
1. FC Heidenheim trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Borussia Dortmund trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Heidenheim 62% and Borussia Dortmund 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 55% | Borussia Dortmund 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.41 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.684 / defence 1.228 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.908 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.817 / away 1.405. 1. FC Heidenheim's attack strength of 0.684 is below the league average — the 1.41 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 1. FC Heidenheim games / 53 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 34% | Draw 24% | Borussia Dortmund 41%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Borussia Dortmund 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Dortmund at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Heidenheim 30% | Borussia Dortmund 70%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 34% | Draw 24% | Borussia Dortmund 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.41 / Borussia Dortmund 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.684 / def 1.228 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.908 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.817 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Borussia Dortmund xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
1. FC Heidenheim 1 - 2 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 34% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (3 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 0W | Draws 2 | Borussia Dortmund 1W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from 1. FC Heidenheim's attack rating (0.68) and Borussia Dortmund's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
34%
2.91
24%
4.11
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
2.98
1.57
Borussia Dortmund xG
2.91
34%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
7%
13.97
10%
9.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.57 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Heidenheim come into this having played 53 games, going 14W 14D 25L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund sit at 1.68 PPG from 53 outings (25W 14D 14L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of 1. FC Heidenheim — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
1. FC Heidenheim's home form reads 9W 6D 11L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have taken 1.35 points per game from 26 outings (9W 8D 9L).
The Goals Picture
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 1.92 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Heidenheim have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Borussia Dortmund in 68%.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 14W 14D 25L in their last 53 games (1.06 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 25W 14D 14L in their last 53 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 1.27 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Borussia Dortmund have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
1. FC Heidenheim
2
Draws
4
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, Borussia Dortmund have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 3-2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 58%, Borussia Dortmund 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (1. FC Heidenheim) and 62% (Borussia Dortmund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 69% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 62% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Borussia Dortmund edge out 1. FC Heidenheim 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat 1. FC Heidenheim 1-2 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.41 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.57 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.68 / defence 1.23 against Borussia Dortmund attack 0.91 / defence 1.13, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 34% | Draw 24% | Borussia Dortmund 41%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 55%, Borussia Dortmund 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.06. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.