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Poisson model favours Bayer Leverkusen (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as 1. FC Heidenheim face Bayer Leverkusen.

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Full Analysis

Voith-Arena plays host to 1. FC Heidenheim versus Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 14:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

1. FC Heidenheim have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.

1. FC Heidenheim at Voith-Arena this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bayer Leverkusen away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

On a straight form reading, Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to Bayer Leverkusen, who have claimed 5 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.4 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 0–6 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bayer Leverkusen have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading

1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 42% of games.

Bayer Leverkusen half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 50% versus Bayer Leverkusen 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 62% | Bayer Leverkusen 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.25 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 2.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.829 / defence 1.520 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.112 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.348. Data: 60 1. FC Heidenheim games / 60 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 20% | Draw 20% | Bayer Leverkusen 60%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 5.00 | Draw 5.00 | Bayer Leverkusen 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.25 / 2.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% | Bayer Leverkusen 50% BTTS from recent games.

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