VfL Bochum 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfL Bochum at 50% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vonovia Ruhrstadion plays host to VfL Bochum versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 31). Kick-off: Sunday 26 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Form
VfL Bochum (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
VfL Bochum at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — VfL Bochum are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for VfL Bochum, 1.40 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from VfL Bochum's last 10 home games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of VfL Bochum's games and 70% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours VfL Bochum, who have won 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against SpVgg Greuther Fürth — SpVgg Greuther Fürth have 0 wins, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2025, ended VfL Bochum 3–0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a VfL Bochum win.
The head-to-head data gives VfL Bochum an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Data
VfL Bochum goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Bochum 56% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Bochum 48% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Bochum 1.85 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Bochum attack 1.116 / defence 1.128 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.849 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.320. Data: built from VfL Bochum's last 30 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 64.
Result probabilities: VfL Bochum 50% | Draw 26% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 25%. Fair-value odds: VfL Bochum 2.01 | Draw 3.87 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.08. VfL Bochum hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.85 / 1.26) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfL Bochum as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (VfL Bochum 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfL Bochum if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (VfL Bochum's last 10 home games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VfL Bochum 70% (last 10 home games) | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 31 | Venue: Vonovia Ruhrstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Bochum 50% | Draw 26% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG VfL Bochum 1.85 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Bochum attack 1.116 / def 1.128 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.849 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: VfL Bochum (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
VfL Bochum xG
Expected Goals
1.26
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth FAQs
What time does VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What was the final score in VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
VfL Bochum 2 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What competition is VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 31) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives VfL Bochum a 50% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making VfL Bochum the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both VfL Bochum and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from VfL Bochum's attack rating (1.12) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (0.85x) against VfL Bochum's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from VfL Bochum's last 30 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Bochum Win
50%
2.01
26%
3.87
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
VfL Bochum xG
Total xG
3.12
1.26
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
16%
6.39
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
4%
26.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are VfL Bochum and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for VfL Bochum and 1.26 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, VfL Bochum have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 14W 17D 33L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 19W 15D 30L from 64 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for VfL Bochum against 1.12 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, VfL Bochum have posted 1.19 PPG from their last 32 home games (10W 8D 14L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 8W 6D 18L from their last 32 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfL Bochum are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.38 scored and 1.91 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Bochum
Current Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Current Season
VfL Bochum (Home) vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VfL Bochum
Current Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Current Season
❓ VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Form FAQs
What form are VfL Bochum and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
VfL Bochum have gone 14W 17D 33L in their last 64 games (0.92 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 19W 15D 30L in their last 64 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Bochum at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
VfL Bochum's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Bochum at home: 1.19 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfL Bochum won SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-3 VfL Bochum on 29 Nov 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfL Bochum have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
VfL Bochum
1
Draws
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, VfL Bochum have won 4, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did VfL Bochum and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: VfL Bochum 1-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between VfL Bochum and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
VfL Bochum have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Bochum 53%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (VfL Bochum) and 62% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Bochum home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VfL Bochum and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of VfL Bochum's recent matches and 56% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are VfL Bochum and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of VfL Bochum's matches and 62% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do VfL Bochum and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of VfL Bochum's recent matches and 78% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VfL Bochum edge out SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Bochum beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 31, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.85 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.26 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 1.12 / defence 1.13 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.85 / defence 1.04, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 50% | Draw 26% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 25%, with VfL Bochum to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 48%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Bochum's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Bochum 0.92 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Bochum win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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