SV Wehen 0-1 VfL Osnabrück – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Wehen at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SV Wehen face VfL Osnabrück.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
SV Wehen welcome VfL Osnabrück to BRITA-Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 31 March 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Guide
SV Wehen — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SV Wehen at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, VfL Osnabrück have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
VfL Osnabrück away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SV Wehen at 1.00 PPG versus VfL Osnabrück's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from SV Wehen's last 10 home games and VfL Osnabrück's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for SV Wehen, 0 for VfL Osnabrück and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended SV Wehen 2–0 VfL Osnabrück — a SV Wehen win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
SV Wehen in-play and half-time data (last 26 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
VfL Osnabrück in-play and half-time data (last 26 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Wehen 58% versus VfL Osnabrück 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Wehen 42% | VfL Osnabrück 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Wehen 1.66 xG and VfL Osnabrück 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Wehen attack 0.793 / defence 1.069 | VfL Osnabrück attack 0.835 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.375. SV Wehen's attack rating of 0.793 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.66. VfL Osnabrück's defence rating of 1.303 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SV Wehen's projected output up. Data: built from SV Wehen's last 26 games and VfL Osnabrück's last 26.
Result probabilities: SV Wehen 47% | Draw 24% | VfL Osnabrück 28%. Fair-value odds: SV Wehen 2.11 | Draw 4.13 | VfL Osnabrück 3.53. SV Wehen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Wehen at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Wehen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SV Wehen's last 10 home games and VfL Osnabrück's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SV Wehen 80% (last 10 home games) | VfL Osnabrück 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 27 | Venue: BRITA-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 March 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Wehen 47% | Draw 24% | VfL Osnabrück 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG SV Wehen 1.66 / VfL Osnabrück 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: SV Wehen attack 0.793 / def 1.069 | VfL Osnabrück attack 0.835 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: SV Wehen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
SV Wehen xG
Expected Goals
1.23
VfL Osnabrück xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück FAQs
What time does SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück kick off?
SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 31 March 2024 at BRITA-Arena.
What was the final score in SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück?
SV Wehen 0 - 1 VfL Osnabrück.
Where is SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück being played?
The match is being played at BRITA-Arena.
What competition is SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück part of?
SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 27) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück?
Our statistical model gives SV Wehen a 47% chance of winning, VfL Osnabrück a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SV Wehen the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SV Wehen and VfL Osnabrück will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SV Wehen's attack at 0.79x the league average against VfL Osnabrück's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Osnabrück's attack versus SV Wehen's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SV Wehen's last 26 games and VfL Osnabrück's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Wehen Win
47%
2.11
24%
4.13
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
SV Wehen xG
Total xG
2.88
1.23
VfL Osnabrück xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
5%
18.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.4 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are SV Wehen and VfL Osnabrück expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for SV Wehen and 1.23 for VfL Osnabrück, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, SV Wehen have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 8W 7D 11L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
VfL Osnabrück's form line: 3W 9D 14L from 26 games, 0.69 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L.
Put side by side, SV Wehen are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfL Osnabrück.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SV Wehen have posted 1.42 PPG from their last 12 home games (4W 5D 3L).
On the road, VfL Osnabrück have gone 1W 3D 8L from their last 12 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Wehen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SV Wehen are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; VfL Osnabrück are on 0.92 scored and 2.04 conceded.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Wehen
Blended
VfL Osnabrück
Blended
SV Wehen (Home) vs VfL Osnabrück (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Wehen
Blended
VfL Osnabrück
Blended
❓ SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück Form FAQs
What form are SV Wehen and VfL Osnabrück in coming into this match?
SV Wehen have gone 8W 7D 11L in their last 26 games (1.19 PPG), while VfL Osnabrück have gone 3W 9D 14L in their last 26 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Wehen at home or VfL Osnabrück away?
SV Wehen's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Wehen at home: 1.42 PPG; VfL Osnabrück away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 31 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SV Wehen
0
Draws
1
VfL Osnabrück
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Wehen and VfL Osnabrück?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Wehen have won 1, VfL Osnabrück have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Wehen and VfL Osnabrück last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 March 2024: SV Wehen 0-1 VfL Osnabrück.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
VfL Osnabrück are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SV Wehen at 75%, VfL Osnabrück at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (SV Wehen) and 83% (VfL Osnabrück). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Osnabrück in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Wehen home games / VfL Osnabrück away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Wehen and VfL Osnabrück matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of SV Wehen's games and 67% of VfL Osnabrück's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SV Wehen and VfL Osnabrück matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of SV Wehen's matches and 83% of VfL Osnabrück's.
Do SV Wehen and VfL Osnabrück matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of SV Wehen's recent matches and 75% of VfL Osnabrück's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VfL Osnabrück defy the odds to beat SV Wehen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Osnabrück beat SV Wehen 0-1 at BRITA-Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Wehen 1.66 xG and VfL Osnabrück 1.23 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SV Wehen fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Wehen attack 0.79 / defence 1.07 against VfL Osnabrück attack 0.83 / defence 1.30, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Wehen 47% | Draw 24% | VfL Osnabrück 28%, with SV Wehen to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual VfL Osnabrück win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Wehen 42%, VfL Osnabrück 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Wehen's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
VfL Osnabrück's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Wehen arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.69. Form was overturned, with VfL Osnabrück winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SV Wehen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. VfL Osnabrück (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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