Hamburger SV 3-0 SV Wehen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hamburger SV and SV Wehen meet at Volksparkstadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 March 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Hamburger SV (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Volksparkstadion, Hamburger SV have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Volksparkstadion. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Hamburger SV are significantly better at Volksparkstadion than their overall form suggests.
SV Wehen have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SV Wehen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Wehen away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Hamburger SV against 1.00 for SV Wehen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Hamburger SV, 0 for SV Wehen and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Hamburger SV — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
SV Wehen — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hamburger SV 59% versus SV Wehen 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 63% | SV Wehen 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.50 xG and SV Wehen 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.096 / defence 1.181 | SV Wehen attack 0.903 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.397. Data: 59 Hamburger SV games / 25 SV Wehen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 38% | Draw 24% | SV Wehen 38%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | SV Wehen 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Hamburger SV 50% | SV Wehen 40%.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Mar 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 38% | Draw 24% | SV Wehen 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Hamburger SV 1.50 / SV Wehen 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 1.096 / def 1.181 | SV Wehen attack 0.903 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Draw (24%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.49
SV Wehen xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen kick off?
Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen?
Hamburger SV 3 - 0 SV Wehen.
Where is Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen part of?
Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 38% chance of winning, SV Wehen a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Hamburger SV and SV Wehen will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and SV Wehen?
Record (1 meetings): Hamburger SV 0W | Draws 1 | SV Wehen 0W.
What form are Hamburger SV and SV Wehen in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. SV Wehen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hamburger SV's attack at 1.10x the league average against SV Wehen's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SV Wehen's attack (0.90x) against Hamburger SV's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 59/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
38%
2.64
24%
4.10
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
2.99
1.49
SV Wehen xG
2.64
38%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
9%
11.70
8%
11.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and SV Wehen expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.49 for SV Wehen, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hamburger SV come into this having played 27 games, going 12W 5D 10L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SV Wehen sit at 1.37 PPG from 27 outings (10W 7D 10L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for SV Wehen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Hamburger SV against 1.37 for SV Wehen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Hamburger SV's home form reads 8W 0D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Wehen have taken 1.08 points per game from 13 outings (4W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; SV Wehen are on 1.33 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 27 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
SV Wehen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and SV Wehen in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 12W 5D 10L in their last 27 games (1.52 PPG), while SV Wehen have gone 10W 7D 10L in their last 27 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or SV Wehen away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.85 PPG; SV Wehen away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Hamburger SV or SV Wehen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, SV Wehen in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Hamburger SV
1
Draws
0
SV Wehen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and SV Wehen?
From 2 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 1, SV Wehen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and SV Wehen last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2024, when Hamburger SV 3-0 SV Wehen.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and SV Wehen?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 54%, SV Wehen 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Hamburger SV) and 46% (SV Wehen).
On the defensive side: Hamburger SV keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; SV Wehen in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / SV Wehen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play SV Wehen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Hamburger SV's recent matches and 46% of SV Wehen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Hamburger SV's recent games and 46% of SV Wehen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hamburger SV and SV Wehen tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, SV Wehen in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hamburger SV run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SV Wehen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat SV Wehen 3-0 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.50 xG and SV Wehen 1.49 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hamburger SV beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SV Wehen landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.10 / defence 1.18 against SV Wehen attack 0.90 / defence 0.92, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 38% | Draw 24% | SV Wehen 38%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 63%, SV Wehen 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
SV Wehen's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.52 PPG, SV Wehen 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hamburger SV win broke the near-deadlock. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. SV Wehen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.