FC St. Pauli 2-1 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC St. Pauli at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC St. Pauli host SC Paderborn 07 at Millerntor-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 31 March 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC St. Pauli stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, FC St. Pauli have posted 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, FC St. Pauli have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of FC St. Pauli's games and 80% of SC Paderborn 07's (from FC St. Pauli's last 10 home games and SC Paderborn 07's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, FC St. Pauli have won 1, SC Paderborn 07 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended FC St. Pauli 2–2 SC Paderborn 07 — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC St. Pauli in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 55% versus SC Paderborn 07 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 52% | SC Paderborn 07 73%). Note also that SC Paderborn 07 surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while FC St. Pauli recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.79 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.095 / defence 0.740 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.112 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.375. FC St. Pauli have a tight defence (rating 0.740), which is pulling SC Paderborn 07's projected output down. Data: built from FC St. Pauli's last 60 games and SC Paderborn 07's last 60.
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 53% | Draw 23% | SC Paderborn 07 24%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 1.90 | Draw 4.30 | SC Paderborn 07 4.16. FC St. Pauli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC St. Pauli at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FC St. Pauli's last 10 home games and SC Paderborn 07's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC St. Pauli 60% (last 10 home games) | SC Paderborn 07 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 27 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 March 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 53% | Draw 23% | SC Paderborn 07 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG FC St. Pauli 1.79 / SC Paderborn 07 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.095 / def 0.740 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.112 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.13
SC Paderborn 07 xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 FAQs
What time does FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07?
FC St. Pauli 2 - 1 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 27) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 53% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC St. Pauli's attack at 1.09x the league average against SC Paderborn 07's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC St. Pauli's last 60 games and SC Paderborn 07's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
53%
1.90
23%
4.30
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.92
1.13
SC Paderborn 07 xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
4%
24.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.9 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.13 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, FC St. Pauli have picked up 1.87 PPG on a 31W 19D 10L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
SC Paderborn 07's form line: 27W 13D 20L from 60 games, 1.57 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC St. Pauli on 1.87 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC St. Pauli have posted 2.10 PPG from their last 30 home games (17W 12D 1L).
On the road, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 10W 10D 10L from their last 30 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.80 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 62%.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
FC St. Pauli (Home) vs SC Paderborn 07 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC St. Pauli
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 Form FAQs
What form are FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 31W 19D 10L in their last 60 games (1.87 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 27W 13D 20L in their last 60 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 2.10 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.33 PPG.
Have FC St. Pauli or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 31 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC St. Pauli
3
Draws
1
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, FC St. Pauli have won 2, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 March 2024: FC St. Pauli 2-1 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 50%, SC Paderborn 07 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (FC St. Pauli) and 73% (SC Paderborn 07). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC St. Pauli's games and 67% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 73% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 80% of SC Paderborn 07's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC St. Pauli edge out SC Paderborn 07 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat SC Paderborn 07 2-1 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.79 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.13 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.09 / defence 0.74 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.11 / defence 1.02, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 53% | Draw 23% | SC Paderborn 07 24%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 52%, SC Paderborn 07 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 1.87 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC St. Pauli win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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