FC St. Pauli 2-1 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC St. Pauli at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC St. Pauli host SC Paderborn 07 at Millerntor-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 March 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC St. Pauli stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC St. Pauli have posted 7W 3D 0L at Millerntor-Stadion — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, FC St. Pauli have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC St. Pauli register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for FC St. Pauli, 1 for SC Paderborn 07 and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC St. Pauli in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 55% versus SC Paderborn 07 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 52% | SC Paderborn 07 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.79 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.095 / defence 0.740 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.112 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.375. FC St. Pauli's defence rating of 0.740 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 FC St. Pauli games / 60 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 53% | Draw 23% | SC Paderborn 07 24%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | SC Paderborn 07 4.17. FC St. Pauli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC St. Pauli at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC St. Pauli 60% | SC Paderborn 07 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 53% | Draw 23% | SC Paderborn 07 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.79 / SC Paderborn 07 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.095 / def 0.740 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.112 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.13
SC Paderborn 07 xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07?
FC St. Pauli 2 - 1 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 53% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (5 meetings): FC St. Pauli 1W | Draws 3 | SC Paderborn 07 1W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07 in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC St. Pauli's attack at 1.09x the league average against SC Paderborn 07's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
53%
1.90
23%
4.30
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.92
1.13
SC Paderborn 07 xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
4%
24.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.9 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.13 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, FC St. Pauli have picked up 1.87 PPG on a 31W 19D 10L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07's form line: 27W 13D 20L from 60 games, 1.57 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC St. Pauli on 1.87 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC St. Pauli have posted 2.10 PPG from 30 outings (17W 12D 1L).
On the road, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 10W 10D 10L from 30 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.80 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 62%.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 31W 19D 10L in their last 60 games (1.87 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 27W 13D 20L in their last 60 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 2.10 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.33 PPG.
Have FC St. Pauli or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC St. Pauli
3
Draws
1
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07?
From 6 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 2, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2024, when FC St. Pauli 2-1 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 50%, SC Paderborn 07 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (FC St. Pauli) and 73% (SC Paderborn 07). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC St. Pauli's games and 67% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC St. Pauli vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 73% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do FC St. Pauli and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC St. Pauli edge out SC Paderborn 07 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat SC Paderborn 07 2-1 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.79 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.13 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.09 / defence 0.74 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.11 / defence 1.02, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 53% | Draw 23% | SC Paderborn 07 24%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 52%, SC Paderborn 07 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 1.87 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC St. Pauli win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.