SV Wehen 1-1 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 41%, yet in-form SV Wehen provide a compelling counter-argument — this SV Wehen vs 1. FC Magdeburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
BRITA-Arena plays host to SV Wehen versus 1. FC Magdeburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 29 July 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
SV Wehen (all games): 2W 0D 0L across 2 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. SV Wehen haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
1. FC Magdeburg have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. 1. FC Magdeburg haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
1. FC Magdeburg's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward SV Wehen. A 1.50 PPG lead over 1. FC Magdeburg (3.00 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Wehen 1.40 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Wehen attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.949 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.424. Data: 0 SV Wehen games / 34 1. FC Magdeburg games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: SV Wehen 34% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Magdeburg 41%. Fair-value odds: SV Wehen 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | 1. FC Magdeburg 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Magdeburg are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SV Wehen (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Wehen vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: BRITA-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jul 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Wehen 34% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Magdeburg 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG SV Wehen 1.40 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: SV Wehen attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.949 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.424 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
SV Wehen xG
Expected Goals
1.55
1. FC Magdeburg xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Wehen vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
SV Wehen vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 29 July 2023 at BRITA-Arena.
What was the final score in SV Wehen vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
SV Wehen 1 - 1 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is SV Wehen vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at BRITA-Arena.
What competition is SV Wehen vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
SV Wehen vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Wehen vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives SV Wehen a 34% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Wehen vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both SV Wehen and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will SV Wehen vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Wehen and 1. FC Magdeburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SV Wehen and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. SV Wehen (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SV Wehen's attack at 0.85x the league average against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Magdeburg's attack (0.95x) against SV Wehen's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
34%
2.92
24%
4.09
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
SV Wehen xG
Total xG
2.95
1.55
1. FC Magdeburg xG
2.92
34%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
7%
13.80
10%
9.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Wehen vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are SV Wehen and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for SV Wehen and 1.55 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Wehen vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SV Wehen come into this having played 2 games, going 2W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W. SV Wehen haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, 1. FC Magdeburg sit at 1.50 PPG from 2 outings (1W 0D 1L), a run that reads L-W across their last five. 1. FC Magdeburg haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
SV Wehen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Wehen are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 2.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. SV Wehen's scoring rate against 1. FC Magdeburg's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Magdeburg in 0%.
Defensively: SV Wehen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; 1. FC Magdeburg in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Wehen
Pre-Season
1. FC Magdeburg
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Wehen and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
SV Wehen have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have SV Wehen or 1. FC Magdeburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Wehen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, 1. FC Magdeburg in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SV Wehen
1
Draws
1
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Wehen and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 2 meetings on record, SV Wehen have won 0, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Wehen and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2024, when 1. FC Magdeburg 1-0 SV Wehen.
Who has won more matches between SV Wehen and 1. FC Magdeburg?
1. FC Magdeburg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Wehen home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Wehen play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SV Wehen's recent matches and 0% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Wehen vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of SV Wehen's matches and 50% of 1. FC Magdeburg's.
Do SV Wehen and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
SV Wehen have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Wehen and 1. FC Magdeburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Wehen and 1. FC Magdeburg finished level at 1-1 at BRITA-Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Wehen 1.40 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.55 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Wehen attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.95 / defence 0.95, drawn from 0/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Wehen 34% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Magdeburg 41%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Wehen 100%, 1. FC Magdeburg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Wehen arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SV Wehen managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward. 1. FC Magdeburg managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.