1. FC Kaiserslautern 1-2 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC St. Pauli at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs FC St. Pauli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 1 as 1. FC Kaiserslautern welcome FC St. Pauli to Fritz-Walter-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 July 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. 1. FC Kaiserslautern haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
1. FC Kaiserslautern at Fritz-Walter-Stadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — 1. FC Kaiserslautern are significantly better at Fritz-Walter-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC St. Pauli stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. FC St. Pauli haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
FC St. Pauli's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC St. Pauli are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 1 for FC St. Pauli and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with FC St. Pauli winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Kaiserslautern in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
FC St. Pauli in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 53% versus FC St. Pauli 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Kaiserslautern 53% | FC St. Pauli 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.46 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 0.905 / defence 1.044 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.257 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.424. FC St. Pauli have an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — the away xG of 1.87 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 1. FC Kaiserslautern games / 34 FC St. Pauli games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 30% | Draw 22% | FC St. Pauli 47%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3.33 | Draw 4.55 | FC St. Pauli 2.13. FC St. Pauli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC St. Pauli at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 50% | FC St. Pauli 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Fritz-Walter-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jul 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 30% | Draw 22% | FC St. Pauli 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.46 / FC St. Pauli 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 0.905 / def 1.044 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.257 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.424 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
Expected Goals
1.87
FC St. Pauli xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 29 July 2023 at Fritz-Walter-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs FC St. Pauli?
1. FC Kaiserslautern 1 - 2 FC St. Pauli.
Where is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Fritz-Walter-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs FC St. Pauli part of?
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Kaiserslautern a 30% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 47% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both 1. FC Kaiserslautern and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and FC St. Pauli?
Record (2 meetings): 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1W | Draws 0 | FC St. Pauli 1W.
What form are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and FC St. Pauli in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. 1. FC Kaiserslautern (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from 1. FC Kaiserslautern's attack rating (0.91) and FC St. Pauli's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
30%
3.32
22%
4.46
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
Total xG
3.33
1.87
FC St. Pauli xG
3.32
30%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
15%
6.48
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
5%
21.49
11%
9.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 1.87 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Kaiserslautern come into this having played 34 games, going 11W 12D 11L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. 1. FC Kaiserslautern haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, FC St. Pauli sit at 1.71 PPG from 34 outings (16W 10D 8L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five. FC St. Pauli haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Kaiserslautern on 1.32 PPG, FC St. Pauli on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
1. FC Kaiserslautern's home form reads 6W 6D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, FC St. Pauli have taken 1.41 points per game from 17 outings (7W 3D 7L).
The Goals Picture
1. FC Kaiserslautern are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.62 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Pre-Season
FC St. Pauli
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 11W 12D 11L in their last 34 games (1.32 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 16W 10D 8L in their last 34 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Kaiserslautern at home or FC St. Pauli away?
1. FC Kaiserslautern's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Kaiserslautern at home: 1.41 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.41 PPG.
Have 1. FC Kaiserslautern or FC St. Pauli been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, FC St. Pauli in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and FC St. Pauli runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC St. Pauli have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
1. FC Kaiserslautern's record when hosting FC St. Pauli specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
1. FC Kaiserslautern
0
Draws
3
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and FC St. Pauli?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have won 1, FC St. Pauli have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Kaiserslautern and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2024, when FC St. Pauli 2-0 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Kaiserslautern are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 59%, FC St. Pauli 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 65% for FC St. Pauli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Kaiserslautern have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Kaiserslautern home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Kaiserslautern play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's games and 53% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's matches and 65% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do 1. FC Kaiserslautern and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC St. Pauli edge out 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1-2 at Fritz-Walter-Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.46 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.87 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 0.91 / defence 1.04 against FC St. Pauli attack 1.26 / defence 0.94, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Kaiserslautern 30% | Draw 22% | FC St. Pauli 47%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Kaiserslautern 53%, FC St. Pauli 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Kaiserslautern's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.32 PPG, FC St. Pauli 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC St. Pauli win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.