SV Elversberg 0-3 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Elversberg at 41% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Hertha BSC travel to Waldstadion Kaiserlinde to take on SV Elversberg in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, SV Elversberg stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SV Elversberg's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Hertha BSC have recorded 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Hertha BSC's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SV Elversberg 1.60 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
SV Elversberg hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 1 for Hertha BSC and 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 Aug 2025, ended SV Elversberg 2–0 Hertha BSC — a SV Elversberg win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both SV Elversberg and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 4.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
SV Elversberg in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Elversberg 54% versus Hertha BSC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Elversberg 57% | Hertha BSC 50%). Note also that Hertha BSC surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while SV Elversberg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.40 xG and Hertha BSC 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 1.029 / defence 0.769 | Hertha BSC attack 1.139 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.330. SV Elversberg have a tight defence (rating 0.769), which is pulling Hertha BSC's projected output down. Data: built from SV Elversberg's last 54 games and Hertha BSC's last 54.
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 41% | Draw 29% | Hertha BSC 30%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 2.43 | Draw 3.47 | Hertha BSC 3.34. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Elversberg at 41% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (SV Elversberg 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SV Elversberg 50% (last 10 home games) | Hertha BSC 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 21 | Venue: Waldstadion Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 41% | Draw 29% | Hertha BSC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG SV Elversberg 1.40 / Hertha BSC 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 1.029 / def 0.769 | Hertha BSC attack 1.139 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Hertha BSC xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC FAQs
What time does SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC kick off?
SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC?
SV Elversberg 0 - 3 Hertha BSC.
Where is SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC part of?
SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 21) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 41% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both SV Elversberg and Hertha BSC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SV Elversberg's attack at 1.03x the league average against Hertha BSC's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus SV Elversberg's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SV Elversberg's last 54 games and Hertha BSC's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
41%
2.43
29%
3.47
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
2.57
1.17
Hertha BSC xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
7%
13.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 1.17 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, SV Elversberg have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 27W 14D 13L record — W-D-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Hertha BSC's form line: 20W 15D 19L from 54 games, 1.39 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Elversberg on 1.76 PPG, Hertha BSC on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, SV Elversberg have posted 1.85 PPG from their last 26 home games (14W 6D 6L).
On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 12W 6D 8L from their last 26 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.37 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: SV Elversberg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
SV Elversberg (Home) vs Hertha BSC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Elversberg
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC Form FAQs
What form are SV Elversberg and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 27W 14D 13L in their last 54 games (1.76 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 20W 15D 19L in their last 54 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or Hertha BSC away?
SV Elversberg's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 1.85 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 1.62 PPG.
Have SV Elversberg or Hertha BSC been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Elversberg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Hertha BSC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Dec 2023, when Hertha BSC won Hertha BSC 5-1 SV Elversberg.
SV Elversberg's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
SV Elversberg
0
Draws
2
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and Hertha BSC?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Elversberg have won 4, Hertha BSC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and Hertha BSC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: SV Elversberg 0-3 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between SV Elversberg and Hertha BSC?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Elversberg 54%, Hertha BSC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for SV Elversberg and 65% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Hertha BSC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Elversberg vs Hertha BSC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Elversberg and Hertha BSC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of SV Elversberg's games and 58% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SV Elversberg and Hertha BSC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of SV Elversberg's matches and 65% of Hertha BSC's.
Do SV Elversberg and Hertha BSC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of SV Elversberg's recent matches and 77% of Hertha BSC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hertha BSC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of SV Elversberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat SV Elversberg 0-3 at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 21, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.40 xG and Hertha BSC 1.17 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. SV Elversberg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Hertha BSC outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 1.03 / defence 0.77 against Hertha BSC attack 1.14 / defence 0.94, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 41% | Draw 29% | Hertha BSC 30%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Hertha BSC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 57%, Hertha BSC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Elversberg 1.76 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hertha BSC win broke the near-deadlock. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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