Hertha BSC 2-2 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hertha BSC vs SV Darmstadt 98 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hertha BSC and SV Darmstadt 98 meet at Olympiastadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 February 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Hertha BSC (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC at Olympiastadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympiastadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
SV Darmstadt 98's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98 away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Hertha BSC against 1.90 for SV Darmstadt 98. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hertha BSC lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
SV Darmstadt 98 — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 53% versus SV Darmstadt 98 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 49% | SV Darmstadt 98 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.07 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.723 / defence 0.806 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.175 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.298. Hertha BSC's attack strength of 0.723 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Hertha BSC games / 53 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 32% | Draw 29% | SV Darmstadt 98 39%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | SV Darmstadt 98 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 20% | SV Darmstadt 98 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Olympiastadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 32% | Draw 29% | SV Darmstadt 98 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Hertha BSC 1.07 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.723 / def 0.806 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.175 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.23
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
Hertha BSC vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Olympiastadion.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Hertha BSC 2 - 2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is Hertha BSC vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
Hertha BSC vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 32% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Hertha BSC and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (3 meetings): Hertha BSC 0W | Draws 2 | SV Darmstadt 98 1W.
What form are Hertha BSC and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hertha BSC's attack rating (0.72) and SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SV Darmstadt 98's attack (1.18x) against Hertha BSC's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
32%
3.17
29%
3.43
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.30
1.23
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
9%
10.84
13%
7.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.3 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.23 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hertha BSC come into this having played 53 games, going 20W 14D 19L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-D. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 1.49 PPG from 53 outings (21W 16D 16L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Hertha BSC against 1.49 for SV Darmstadt 98. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Hertha BSC's home form reads 8W 8D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 1.04 points per game from 26 outings (6W 9D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SV Darmstadt 98's season.
Attack vs Defence
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.70 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Darmstadt 98 in 62%.
Last 53 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 20W 14D 19L in their last 53 games (1.40 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 21W 16D 16L in their last 53 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.23 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Hertha BSC or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hertha BSC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hertha BSC have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Hertha BSC
3
Draws
1
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 4 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 0, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Hertha BSC 2-2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
SV Darmstadt 98 see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 46%, SV Darmstadt 98 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Hertha BSC) and 69% (SV Darmstadt 98).
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Hertha BSC have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Hertha BSC's games and 73% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Hertha BSC's recent games and 69% of SV Darmstadt 98's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hertha BSC and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hertha BSC and SV Darmstadt 98 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Olympiastadion, Regular Season - 20, as Hertha BSC and SV Darmstadt 98 drew 2-2 in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.07 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.23 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Hertha BSC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.72 / defence 0.81 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.18 / defence 1.05, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 32% | Draw 29% | SV Darmstadt 98 39%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 49%, SV Darmstadt 98 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hertha BSC 1.40 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.