SV Elversberg 1-1 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SV Elversberg at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SV Elversberg and FC Schalke 04 meet at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 April 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SV Elversberg have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
SV Elversberg's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
FC Schalke 04's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
FC Schalke 04's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for SV Elversberg, 1.50 for FC Schalke 04 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: SV Elversberg 1W, FC Schalke 04 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with SV Elversberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SV Elversberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC Schalke 04 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Elversberg 62% versus FC Schalke 04 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Elversberg 66% | FC Schalke 04 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.58 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 0.737 / defence 1.136 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.806 / defence 1.369. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.340. SV Elversberg's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 1.58 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Schalke 04 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.369 — this is suppressing SV Elversberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 SV Elversberg games / 29 FC Schalke 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 45% | Draw 26% | FC Schalke 04 29%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | FC Schalke 04 3.45. SV Elversberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SV Elversberg as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SV Elversberg 40% | FC Schalke 04 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Friday 19 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 45% | Draw 26% | FC Schalke 04 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG SV Elversberg 1.58 / FC Schalke 04 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 0.737 / def 1.136 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.806 / def 1.369 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
1.23
FC Schalke 04 xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 19 April 2024 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04?
SV Elversberg 1 - 1 FC Schalke 04.
Where is SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04 is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 45% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SV Elversberg and FC Schalke 04 will score (BTTS).
Will SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and FC Schalke 04?
Record (1 meetings): SV Elversberg 1W | Draws 0 | FC Schalke 04 0W.
What form are SV Elversberg and FC Schalke 04 in?
SV Elversberg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SV Elversberg's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against FC Schalke 04's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — FC Schalke 04's attack (0.81x) against SV Elversberg's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
45%
2.23
26%
3.78
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
2.81
1.23
FC Schalke 04 xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
6%
16.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.7 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 1.23 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SV Elversberg's recent record stands at 11W 6D 12L from 29 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five.
FC Schalke 04, meanwhile, have gone 10W 5D 14L across 29 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-L-D-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for SV Elversberg against 1.21 for FC Schalke 04. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SV Elversberg have managed 5W 3D 6L from 14 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Schalke 04's away record stands at 2W 2D 10L across 14 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Schalke 04's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Elversberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 1.55 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Elversberg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Current Season
FC Schalke 04
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Elversberg and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 11W 6D 12L in their last 29 games (1.34 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 10W 5D 14L in their last 29 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
SV Elversberg's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 1.29 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Schalke 04 have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Schalke 04 won 1-4 on 20 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Elversberg have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Schalke 04 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
SV Elversberg
1
Draws
3
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and FC Schalke 04?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Elversberg have won 2, FC Schalke 04 have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when SV Elversberg 1-2 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between SV Elversberg and FC Schalke 04?
FC Schalke 04 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Elversberg 50%, FC Schalke 04 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for SV Elversberg and 64% for FC Schalke 04. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg have failed to score in 43% of games; FC Schalke 04 in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Elversberg play FC Schalke 04?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of SV Elversberg's games and 64% of FC Schalke 04's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of SV Elversberg's matches and 64% of FC Schalke 04's.
Do SV Elversberg and FC Schalke 04 tend to score early?
SV Elversberg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, FC Schalke 04 in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Elversberg and FC Schalke 04 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Elversberg and FC Schalke 04 finished level at 1-1 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 30, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.58 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.23 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 0.74 / defence 1.14 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.81 / defence 1.37, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 45% | Draw 26% | FC Schalke 04 29%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 66%, FC Schalke 04 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Elversberg 1.34 PPG, FC Schalke 04 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.