Hamburger SV 0-1 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Holstein Kiel at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hamburger SV vs Holstein Kiel encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Volksparkstadion plays host to Hamburger SV versus Holstein Kiel in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 30). Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 20:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Hamburger SV have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Hamburger SV have posted 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Holstein Kiel's record over their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Holstein Kiel have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Holstein Kiel are 0.80 PPG clear of Hamburger SV over their recent games (2.30 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Holstein Kiel edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Hamburger SV 2–4 Holstein Kiel — a Holstein Kiel win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Hamburger SV half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Holstein Kiel half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hamburger SV 62% and Holstein Kiel 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hamburger SV 64% | Holstein Kiel 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.25 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.157 / defence 1.059 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.329 / defence 0.709. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.345. Holstein Kiel bring a tight defence (rating 0.709, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Hamburger SV's projected output down. Holstein Kiel have an above-average attack rating of 1.329, which lifts their away xG to 1.89. Data: built from Hamburger SV's last 63 games and Holstein Kiel's last 63.
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 24% | Draw 24% | Holstein Kiel 51%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 4.12 | Draw 4.12 | Holstein Kiel 1.94. Holstein Kiel hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.25 / 1.89) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Holstein Kiel as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Holstein Kiel if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Hamburger SV's last 10 home games and Holstein Kiel's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hamburger SV 60% (last 10 home games) | Holstein Kiel 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 30 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 24% | Draw 24% | Holstein Kiel 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Hamburger SV 1.25 / Holstein Kiel 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 1.157 / def 1.059 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.329 / def 0.709 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Holstein Kiel xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hamburger SV vs Holstein Kiel FAQs
What time does Hamburger SV vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
Hamburger SV vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs Holstein Kiel?
Hamburger SV 0 - 1 Holstein Kiel.
Where is Hamburger SV vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs Holstein Kiel part of?
Hamburger SV vs Holstein Kiel is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 30) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 24% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Hamburger SV and Holstein Kiel will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hamburger SV vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hamburger SV's attack rating (1.16) and Holstein Kiel's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Holstein Kiel's attack (1.33x) against Hamburger SV's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.89.
These ratings are built from Hamburger SV's last 63 games and Holstein Kiel's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
24%
4.12
24%
4.12
51%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
3.15
1.89
Holstein Kiel xG
4.12
24%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
1.94
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
15%
6.65
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
4%
27.36
15%
6.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hamburger SV vs Holstein Kiel Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.89 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs Holstein Kiel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Hamburger SV have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 33W 13D 17L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Holstein Kiel's form line: 30W 14D 19L from 63 games, 1.65 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Hamburger SV against 1.65 for Holstein Kiel. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hamburger SV have posted 2.13 PPG from their last 31 home games (21W 3D 7L).
On the road, Holstein Kiel have gone 15W 9D 7L from their last 31 away games — 1.74 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.86 scored and 1.51 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Holstein Kiel in 65%.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Current Season
Holstein Kiel
Current Season
Hamburger SV (Home) vs Holstein Kiel (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hamburger SV
Current Season
Holstein Kiel
Current Season
❓ Hamburger SV vs Holstein Kiel Form FAQs
What form are Hamburger SV and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 33W 13D 17L in their last 63 games (1.78 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 30W 14D 19L in their last 63 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or Holstein Kiel away?
Hamburger SV's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 2.13 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Hamburger SV or Holstein Kiel been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Holstein Kiel in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Holstein Kiel have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hamburger SV have gone 0W 2D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Holstein Kiel — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hamburger SV
2
Draws
3
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Hamburger SV vs Holstein Kiel H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Holstein Kiel?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Hamburger SV have won 1, Holstein Kiel have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 April 2024: Hamburger SV 0-1 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and Holstein Kiel?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 61%, Holstein Kiel 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Hamburger SV and 61% for Holstein Kiel. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hamburger SV keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Holstein Kiel in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hamburger SV vs Holstein Kiel Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hamburger SV and Holstein Kiel matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Hamburger SV's games and 58% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hamburger SV and Holstein Kiel matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Hamburger SV's matches and 61% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do Hamburger SV and Holstein Kiel matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Hamburger SV's recent matches and 77% of Holstein Kiel's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Holstein Kiel edge out Hamburger SV 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat Hamburger SV 0-1 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 30, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.25 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.89 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hamburger SV fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Holstein Kiel landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.16 / defence 1.06 against Holstein Kiel attack 1.33 / defence 0.71, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 24% | Draw 24% | Holstein Kiel 51%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 64%, Holstein Kiel 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.78 PPG, Holstein Kiel 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Holstein Kiel win broke the near-deadlock. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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