1. FC Kaiserslautern 1-1 SV Wehen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SV Wehen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SV Wehen make the trip to Fritz-Walter-Stadion to face 1. FC Kaiserslautern in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 April 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
1. FC Kaiserslautern (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Fritz-Walter-Stadion, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SV Wehen's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SV Wehen have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 0.60 for SV Wehen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0W, SV Wehen 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with SV Wehen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Kaiserslautern — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 26% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 93% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
SV Wehen — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 74% and SV Wehen 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Kaiserslautern 81% | SV Wehen 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.76 xG and SV Wehen 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.013 / defence 1.374 | SV Wehen attack 0.818 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.338. Data: 63 1. FC Kaiserslautern games / 29 SV Wehen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 43% | Draw 25% | SV Wehen 32%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | SV Wehen 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Kaiserslautern are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Kaiserslautern if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 70% | SV Wehen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SV Wehen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Fritz-Walter-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 43% | Draw 25% | SV Wehen 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.76 / SV Wehen 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.013 / def 1.374 | SV Wehen attack 0.818 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
Expected Goals
1.50
SV Wehen xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SV Wehen kick off?
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SV Wehen kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Fritz-Walter-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SV Wehen?
1. FC Kaiserslautern 1 - 1 SV Wehen.
Where is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SV Wehen being played?
The match is being played at Fritz-Walter-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SV Wehen part of?
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SV Wehen is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SV Wehen?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Kaiserslautern a 43% chance of winning, SV Wehen a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Kaiserslautern the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SV Wehen?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SV Wehen will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SV Wehen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SV Wehen?
Record (1 meetings): 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0W | Draws 0 | SV Wehen 1W.
What form are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SV Wehen in?
1. FC Kaiserslautern (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. SV Wehen (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1. FC Kaiserslautern's attack at 1.01x the league average against SV Wehen's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SV Wehen's attack (0.82x) against 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 63/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Kaiserslautern Win
43%
2.32
25%
4.04
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
Total xG
3.27
1.50
SV Wehen xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
10%
10.45
6%
18.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.1 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SV Wehen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SV Wehen expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 1.50 for SV Wehen, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SV Wehen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Kaiserslautern come into this having played 31 games, going 8W 5D 18L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, SV Wehen sit at 1.19 PPG from 31 outings (10W 7D 14L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for 1. FC Kaiserslautern against 1.19 for SV Wehen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
1. FC Kaiserslautern's home form reads 6W 1D 8L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Wehen have taken 0.93 points per game from 15 outings (4W 2D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Kaiserslautern are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 2.03 conceded per game recently; SV Wehen are on 1.19 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Kaiserslautern have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Current Season
SV Wehen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SV Wehen in coming into this match?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 8W 5D 18L in their last 31 games (0.94 PPG), while SV Wehen have gone 10W 7D 14L in their last 31 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Kaiserslautern at home or SV Wehen away?
1. FC Kaiserslautern's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Kaiserslautern at home: 1.27 PPG; SV Wehen away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1
Draws
1
SV Wehen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SV Wehen?
From 2 meetings on record, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have won 0, SV Wehen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SV Wehen last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1-1 SV Wehen.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SV Wehen?
SV Wehen have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Kaiserslautern are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 73%, SV Wehen 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 93% for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 53% for SV Wehen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Kaiserslautern have failed to score in 27% of games; SV Wehen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Kaiserslautern home games / SV Wehen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Kaiserslautern play SV Wehen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's games and 47% of SV Wehen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SV Wehen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 93% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's matches and 53% of SV Wehen's.
Do 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SV Wehen tend to score early?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, SV Wehen in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Kaiserslautern and SV Wehen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Kaiserslautern and SV Wehen finished level at 1-1 at Fritz-Walter-Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.76 xG and SV Wehen 1.50 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.01 / defence 1.37 against SV Wehen attack 0.82 / defence 1.12, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Kaiserslautern 43% | Draw 25% | SV Wehen 32%, with 1. FC Kaiserslautern to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Kaiserslautern 81%, SV Wehen 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Kaiserslautern's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
SV Wehen's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0.94 PPG, SV Wehen 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Kaiserslautern (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.