SV Darmstadt 98 3-1 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SV Darmstadt 98 face Hertha BSC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC meet at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 12). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 12:00 UK time.
Form
SV Darmstadt 98 (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Hertha BSC's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hertha BSC's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for SV Darmstadt 98 against 1.70 for Hertha BSC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 home games and Hertha BSC's last 10 away games) — SV Darmstadt 98 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Hertha BSC in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
SV Darmstadt 98 — key trading statistics (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Darmstadt 98 56% and Hertha BSC 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SV Darmstadt 98 62% | Hertha BSC 73%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SV Darmstadt 98 surrender their half-time lead 57% of the time, while Hertha BSC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.36 xG and Hertha BSC 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.984 / defence 1.034 | Hertha BSC attack 1.205 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.528. Hertha BSC have an above-average attack rating of 1.205, which lifts their away xG to 1.91. Data: built from SV Darmstadt 98's last 11 games and Hertha BSC's last 45.
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 26% | Draw 25% | Hertha BSC 49%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 3.84 | Draw 3.97 | Hertha BSC 2.05. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.36 / 1.91) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 home games and Hertha BSC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SV Darmstadt 98 60% (last 10 home games) | Hertha BSC 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 12 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 26% | Draw 25% | Hertha BSC 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.36 / Hertha BSC 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.984 / def 1.034 | Hertha BSC attack 1.205 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.583 / away 1.528 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Hertha BSC xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC FAQs
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC?
SV Darmstadt 98 3 - 1 Hertha BSC.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 12) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 26% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SV Darmstadt 98's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Hertha BSC's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Hertha BSC's attack (1.21x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.91.
These ratings are built from SV Darmstadt 98's last 11 games and Hertha BSC's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
26%
3.84
25%
3.97
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.27
1.91
Hertha BSC xG
3.84
26%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
15%
6.72
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
4%
25.81
13%
7.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.91 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 45 outings, SV Darmstadt 98 have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 6W 12D 27L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Hertha BSC's form line: 18W 11D 16L from 45 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Hertha BSC are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SV Darmstadt 98.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 0.55 PPG from their last 22 home games (2W 6D 14L).
On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 8W 5D 9L from their last 22 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hertha BSC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.96 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC in 71%.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98 (Home) vs Hertha BSC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC Form FAQs
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 6W 12D 27L in their last 45 games (0.67 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 18W 11D 16L in their last 45 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or Hertha BSC away?
Hertha BSC's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 0.55 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC, the earliest from November 2024. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 1 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
SV Darmstadt 98
3
Draws
0
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, Hertha BSC have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2026: Hertha BSC 2-2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 54% for SV Darmstadt 98, 77% for Hertha BSC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for SV Darmstadt 98 and 73% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of SV Darmstadt 98's games and 77% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 73% of Hertha BSC's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 91% of Hertha BSC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Darmstadt 98 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat Hertha BSC 3-1 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 12, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.36 xG and Hertha BSC 1.91 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hertha BSC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.98 / defence 1.03 against Hertha BSC attack 1.21 / defence 0.87, drawn from 11/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 26% | Draw 25% | Hertha BSC 49%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual SV Darmstadt 98 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 62%, Hertha BSC 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hertha BSC arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with SV Darmstadt 98 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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