FC Schalke 04 2-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Schalke 04 at 77%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Schalke 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Schalke 04 host SSV Jahn Regensburg at VELTINS-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 November 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, FC Schalke 04 have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Schalke 04's home record at VELTINS-Arena: 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — FC Schalke 04 are significantly better at VELTINS-Arena than their overall form suggests.
SSV Jahn Regensburg — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 1W 0D 5L from 6 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 3.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Schalke 04 at 0.60 PPG versus SSV Jahn Regensburg's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, FC Schalke 04 have won 1, SSV Jahn Regensburg 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 2–1 with FC Schalke 04 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Schalke 04 trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
SSV Jahn Regensburg trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Schalke 04 69% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 23%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Schalke 04 69% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Schalke 04 3.80 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Schalke 04 attack 1.250 / defence 1.433 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.754 / defence 1.944. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.474. SSV Jahn Regensburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.944 — this is suppressing FC Schalke 04's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 FC Schalke 04 games / 11 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 77% | Draw 12% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 11%. Fair-value odds: FC Schalke 04 1.30 | Draw 8.33 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 9.09. The model has a clear lean to FC Schalke 04 (77%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 90% | BTTS probability 78% | Total xG 5.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 90% — a total xG of 5.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 78% reflects that both xG figures (3.80 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Schalke 04 as the most likely outcome at 77% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 5.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 90% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 78% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Schalke 04 80% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Schalke 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: VELTINS-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 77% | Draw 12% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 90% | BTTS 78% | xG FC Schalke 04 3.80 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: FC Schalke 04 attack 1.250 / def 1.433 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.754 / def 1.944 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.474 • Poisson stance: FC Schalke 04 (77%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
3.80
FC Schalke 04 xG
Expected Goals
1.59
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
78%
BTTS
97%
Over 1.5
90%
Over 2.5
79%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Schalke 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
FC Schalke 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at VELTINS-Arena.
What was the final score in FC Schalke 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
FC Schalke 04 2 - 0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is FC Schalke 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at VELTINS-Arena.
What competition is FC Schalke 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
FC Schalke 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Schalke 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives FC Schalke 04 a 77% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 11% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making FC Schalke 04 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Schalke 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 78% probability that both FC Schalke 04 and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will FC Schalke 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 90%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Record (2 meetings): FC Schalke 04 1W | Draws 0 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 1W.
What form are FC Schalke 04 and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about FC Schalke 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Schalke 04's attack at 1.25x the league average against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence at 1.94x — combine the two and it projects 3.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack versus FC Schalke 04's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-1 carries the highest individual probability at 6.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 4-1 (6.3%), 3-2 (5.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 18% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Schalke 04 Win
77%
1.30
12%
8.14
11%
9.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
6.6%
Home win
Most likely
4 – 1
6.3%
Home win
3 – 2
5.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.80
FC Schalke 04 xG
Total xG
5.40
1.59
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
1.30
77%
Home win
8.14
12%
Draw
9.10
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
97%
Over 1.5
1.03
3%
Under 1.5
33.33
90%
Over 2.5
1.11
10%
Under 2.5
10.00
79%
Over 3.5
1.27
21%
Under 3.5
4.76
63%
Over 4.5
1.59
37%
Under 4.5
2.70
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
78%
BTTS Yes
1.28
22%
BTTS No
4.60
Clean Sheet
20%
4.91
2%
44.88
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Schalke 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.6%.
How many goals are FC Schalke 04 and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 3.80 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 and 1.59 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 5.40.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Schalke 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, FC Schalke 04 have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 3W 3D 7L record — W-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's form line: 3W 2D 8L from 13 games, 0.85 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Schalke 04 on 0.92 PPG, SSV Jahn Regensburg on 0.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Schalke 04 have posted 1.17 PPG from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L).
On the road, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 1W 0D 5L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Schalke 04 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Schalke 04 are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 0.69 scored and 2.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Schalke 04 have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; SSV Jahn Regensburg in 23%.
Last 13 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Schalke 04
Blended
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Schalke 04 and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
FC Schalke 04 have gone 3W 3D 7L in their last 13 games (0.92 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 3W 2D 8L in their last 13 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Schalke 04 at home or SSV Jahn Regensburg away?
FC Schalke 04's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Schalke 04 at home: 1.17 PPG; SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2021, when SSV Jahn Regensburg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Schalke 04's record when hosting SSV Jahn Regensburg specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Schalke 04
0
Draws
2
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Schalke 04 have won 2, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Schalke 04 and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-0 FC Schalke 04.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Schalke 04 at 100%, SSV Jahn Regensburg at 33%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for FC Schalke 04 and 67% for SSV Jahn Regensburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 83% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Schalke 04 home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Schalke 04 play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of FC Schalke 04's games and 33% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Schalke 04 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of FC Schalke 04's matches and 67% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's.
Do FC Schalke 04 and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
FC Schalke 04 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Schalke 04 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Schalke 04 beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-0 at VELTINS-Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Schalke 04 3.80 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.59 xG, a combined 5.40. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Schalke 04 fell 1.8 short of their projected output. SSV Jahn Regensburg landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Schalke 04 attack 1.25 / defence 1.43 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.75 / defence 1.94, drawn from 45/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Schalke 04 77% | Draw 12% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 11%, with FC Schalke 04 to win its most likely call at 77%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 90%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 97% and landed. Over 3.5 was 79% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 78% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Schalke 04 69%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 62% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Schalke 04 0.92 PPG, SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Schalke 04 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 2 against a 3.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.