1. FC Köln 1-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
RheinEnergieSTADION plays host to 1. FC Köln versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Köln have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at RheinEnergieSTADION, 1. FC Köln have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. 1. FC Köln's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: 1. FC Köln 1W, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
1. FC Köln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Köln 58% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 47% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 2.00 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 1.143 / defence 1.164 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.182 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.528. Data: 11 1. FC Köln games / 45 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 37% | Draw 22% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 41%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 2.70 | Draw 4.55 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.10. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.10 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 2.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form 1. FC Köln (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 78% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 77% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Köln 60% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: RheinEnergieSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 37% | Draw 22% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 77% | xG 1. FC Köln 2.00 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.10 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 1.143 / def 1.164 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.182 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.583 / away 1.528 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
2.10
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
77%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
1. FC Köln vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at RheinEnergieSTADION.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
1. FC Köln 1 - 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieSTADION.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
1. FC Köln vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 37% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 41% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both 1. FC Köln and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (2 meetings): 1. FC Köln 1W | Draws 1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about 1. FC Köln vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from 1. FC Köln's attack rating (1.14) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (1.18x) against 1. FC Köln's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 2.10.
These ratings are built from 11/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.3%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
37%
2.72
22%
4.46
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
1 – 1
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
4.10
2.10
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.72
37%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.30
23%
BTTS No
4.33
Clean Sheet
12%
8.19
14%
7.37
Win to Nil
4%
22.26
6%
18.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.9%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 2.10 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 4.10.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Köln's recent record stands at 9W 15D 21L from 45 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 16L across 45 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SpVgg Greuther Fürth by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Köln heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, 1. FC Köln have managed 6W 5D 11L from 22 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record stands at 6W 6D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.51 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 45 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 9W 15D 21L in their last 45 games (0.93 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 17W 12D 16L in their last 45 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.05 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Köln have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
1. FC Köln
2
Draws
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 2, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2025, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Köln see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Köln 50%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (1. FC Köln) and 50% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln have failed to score in 36% of games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of 1. FC Köln's recent matches and 46% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Köln vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of 1. FC Köln's recent games and 50% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Köln and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1. FC Köln defy the odds to beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0 at RheinEnergieSTADION, Regular Season - 12, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 2.00 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.10 xG, a combined 4.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Köln fell 1.0 short of their projected output. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 1.14 / defence 1.16 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.18 / defence 1.10, drawn from 11/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 37% | Draw 22% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 41%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual 1. FC Köln win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 93% and missed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 47%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SpVgg Greuther Fürth arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Köln winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.