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Prediction vindicated as SV Darmstadt 98 edge out Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SV Darmstadt 98 beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-1 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Regular Season - 23, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.89 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.80 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.30 / defence 0.77 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.78 / defence 0.99, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 61% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 14%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 62%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.50 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Darmstadt 98 win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights