SV Darmstadt 98 2-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 welcome Fortuna Düsseldorf to Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 21 February 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Guide
SV Darmstadt 98 — last 10 games: 5W 5D 0L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Fortuna Düsseldorf have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fortuna Düsseldorf away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, SV Darmstadt 98 have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for SV Darmstadt 98, 4 for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended SV Darmstadt 98 3–0 Fortuna Düsseldorf — a SV Darmstadt 98 win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Darmstadt 98 62% and Fortuna Düsseldorf 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 62% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SV Darmstadt 98 surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while Fortuna Düsseldorf have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Fortuna Düsseldorf surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while SV Darmstadt 98 recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.89 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.299 / defence 0.765 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.782 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.344. SV Darmstadt 98 carry an above-average attack rating of 1.299 — their 1.89 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack rating of 0.782 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. SV Darmstadt 98 have a tight defence (rating 0.765), which is pulling Fortuna Düsseldorf's projected output down. Data: built from SV Darmstadt 98's last 56 games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 56.
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 61% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 14%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 1.63 | Draw 3.98 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 7.38. The model has a clear lean to SV Darmstadt 98 (61%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Darmstadt 98 are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SV Darmstadt 98 40% (last 10 home games) | Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 23 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 61% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.89 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.299 / def 0.765 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.782 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
49%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf FAQs
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
SV Darmstadt 98 2 - 1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 23) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 61% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 14% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 1.30x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SV Darmstadt 98's last 56 games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
61%
1.63
25%
3.98
14%
7.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.70
0.80
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
1.63
61%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
7.38
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
15%
6.63
Win to Nil
27%
3.65
2%
48.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 10.3 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 0.80 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SV Darmstadt 98's recent record stands at 22W 18D 16L from 56 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-D in the last five.
Fortuna Düsseldorf, meanwhile, have gone 21W 15D 20L across 56 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.50 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SV Darmstadt 98 have managed 16W 7D 4L from their last 27 home games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — SV Darmstadt 98 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record stands at 10W 7D 10L across their last 27 away games, a 1.37 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.38 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Darmstadt 98 have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 61%.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98 (Home) vs Fortuna Düsseldorf (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Form FAQs
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 22W 18D 16L in their last 56 games (1.50 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 21W 15D 20L in their last 56 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 2.04 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: SV Darmstadt 98 have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Sep 2025, when SV Darmstadt 98 won Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-3 SV Darmstadt 98.
SV Darmstadt 98's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
4
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: SV Darmstadt 98 2-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 52%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 56% (Fortuna Düsseldorf). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of SV Darmstadt 98's games and 70% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 56% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and Fortuna Düsseldorf matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 74% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SV Darmstadt 98 edge out Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-1 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Regular Season - 23, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.89 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.80 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.30 / defence 0.77 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.78 / defence 0.99, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 61% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 14%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 62%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.50 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Darmstadt 98 win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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