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Poisson model rates SSV Ulm 1846 at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this SSV Ulm 1846 vs SSV Jahn Regensburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees SSV Jahn Regensburg travel to Donaustadion to take on SSV Ulm 1846. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 January 2025, 12:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 0W 7D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SSV Ulm 1846, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Donaustadion, SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 1W 3D 4L this season (8 games, 0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SSV Jahn Regensburg away from home this season: 1W 1D 7L from 9 away games — 0.44 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SSV Ulm 1846 0.70 PPG, SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for SSV Ulm 1846, 1 for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

SSV Ulm 1846 in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

SSV Jahn Regensburg in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 72% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Ulm 1846 61% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 17%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Ulm 1846 44% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Ulm 1846 1.67 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.707 / defence 0.942 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.685 / defence 1.581. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.511. SSV Ulm 1846's attack strength of 0.707 is below the league average — the 1.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SSV Jahn Regensburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.581 — this is suppressing SSV Ulm 1846's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 SSV Ulm 1846 games / 18 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 52% | Draw 28% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 20%. Fair-value odds: SSV Ulm 1846 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 5.00. SSV Ulm 1846 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates SSV Ulm 1846 as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SSV Ulm 1846 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: SSV Ulm 1846 75% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 33%.

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