SSV Ulm 1846 5-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SSV Ulm 1846 at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SSV Ulm 1846 face SSV Jahn Regensburg.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

SSV Jahn Regensburg travel to Donaustadion to take on SSV Ulm 1846 in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 19). The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 January 2025 at 12:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 0W 7D 3L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 home games (0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

SSV Jahn Regensburg away from home: 1W 1D 7L from their last 9 away games — 0.44 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SSV Ulm 1846 0.70 PPG, SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for SSV Ulm 1846, 1 for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 9 Aug 2024, ended SSV Ulm 1846 0–1 SSV Jahn Regensburg — a SSV Jahn Regensburg win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

SSV Ulm 1846 in-play tendencies (last 18 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

SSV Jahn Regensburg in-play tendencies (last 18 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 72% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Ulm 1846 61% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 17%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Ulm 1846 44% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Ulm 1846 1.67 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.707 / defence 0.942 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.685 / defence 1.581. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.511. SSV Ulm 1846's attack rating of 0.707 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.67. SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence rating of 1.581 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SSV Ulm 1846's projected output up. SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack rating of 0.685 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from SSV Ulm 1846's last 18 games and SSV Jahn Regensburg's last 18.

Result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 52% | Draw 28% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 20%. Fair-value odds: SSV Ulm 1846 1.92 | Draw 3.63 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 4.90. SSV Ulm 1846 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates SSV Ulm 1846 as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SSV Ulm 1846 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though recent form (SSV Ulm 1846's last 8 home games and SSV Jahn Regensburg's last 9 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SSV Ulm 1846 75% (last 8 home games) | SSV Jahn Regensburg 33% (last 9 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights