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Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Ulm 1846 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Fortuna Düsseldorf and SSV Ulm 1846 meet at Merkur Spiel-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 February 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form

Fortuna Düsseldorf (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fortuna Düsseldorf at Merkur Spiel-Arena this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

SSV Ulm 1846 have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 7D 2L. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SSV Ulm 1846, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SSV Ulm 1846's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Fortuna Düsseldorf against 1.00 for SSV Ulm 1846. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 0 for SSV Ulm 1846 and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 2–1 with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Fortuna Düsseldorf goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

SSV Ulm 1846 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 53% versus SSV Ulm 1846 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 58% | SSV Ulm 1846 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.73 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.131 / defence 1.210 | SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.723 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.502. Data: 53 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 19 SSV Ulm 1846 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 46% | Draw 25% | SSV Ulm 1846 28%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | SSV Ulm 1846 3.57. Fortuna Düsseldorf hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% | SSV Ulm 1846 50%.

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