SSV Jahn Regensburg 0-1 Hannover 96 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hannover 96 at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 18 as SSV Jahn Regensburg welcome Hannover 96 to Jahnstadion Regensburg. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 January 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Jahnstadion Regensburg this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hannover 96 — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hannover 96, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hannover 96 away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hannover 96 are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for SSV Jahn Regensburg, 2 for Hannover 96 and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Hannover 96 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
SSV Jahn Regensburg in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 63% of games.
Hannover 96 in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 26% versus Hannover 96 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 53% | Hannover 96 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.88 xG and Hannover 96 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.590 / defence 0.976 | Hannover 96 attack 0.794 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.507. SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack strength of 0.590 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 51 Hannover 96 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 25% | Draw 35% | Hannover 96 40%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 4.00 | Draw 2.86 | Hannover 96 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hannover 96 at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hannover 96 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: SSV Jahn Regensburg 20% | Hannover 96 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Friday 17 Jan 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 25% | Draw 35% | Hannover 96 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.88 / Hannover 96 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.590 / def 0.976 | Hannover 96 attack 0.794 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.507 • Poisson stance: Hannover 96 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Hannover 96 xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96 kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 17 January 2025 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 0 - 1 Hannover 96.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96 being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96 part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96 is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 25% chance of winning, Hannover 96 a 40% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Hannover 96 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96 will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96?
Record (5 meetings): SSV Jahn Regensburg 1W | Draws 2 | Hannover 96 2W.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96 in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Hannover 96 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack rating (0.59) and Hannover 96's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hannover 96's attack versus SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hannover 96 Win
25%
3.97
35%
2.88
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.05
1.17
Hannover 96 xG
3.97
25%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
41%
2.41
Win to Nil
8%
12.77
17%
6.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 15.1 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96 expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.17 for Hannover 96, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 19 outings, SSV Jahn Regensburg have picked up 0.79 PPG on a 4W 3D 12L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hannover 96's form line: 9W 3D 7L from 19 games, 1.58 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Hannover 96 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hannover 96 are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 1.11 PPG from 9 outings (3W 1D 5L).
On the road, Hannover 96 have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hannover 96's season.
The Goals Picture
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 2.21 conceded per game recently; Hannover 96 are on 1.32 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Jahn Regensburg have seen both teams score in 26% of their recent games.
Defensively: Hannover 96 in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
Hannover 96
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96 in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 4W 3D 12L in their last 19 games (0.79 PPG), while Hannover 96 have gone 9W 3D 7L in their last 19 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or Hannover 96 away?
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 1.11 PPG; Hannover 96 away: 0.89 PPG.
Have SSV Jahn Regensburg or Hannover 96 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Hannover 96 in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96 runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hannover 96 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's record when hosting Hannover 96 specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
2
Draws
3
Hannover 96
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96?
From 6 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, Hannover 96 have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96 last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2025, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 0-1 Hannover 96.
Who has won more matches between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — SSV Jahn Regensburg 11% BTTS, Hannover 96 44%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (SSV Jahn Regensburg) and 56% (Hannover 96).
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SSV Jahn Regensburg have failed to score in 67% of games; Hannover 96 in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / Hannover 96 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play Hannover 96?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 11% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent matches and 44% of Hannover 96's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hannover 96 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent games and 56% of Hannover 96's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hannover 96 tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Hannover 96 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hannover 96 edge out SSV Jahn Regensburg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hannover 96 beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 0-1 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 18, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.88 xG and Hannover 96 1.17 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SSV Jahn Regensburg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.59 / defence 0.98 against Hannover 96 attack 0.79 / defence 1.00, drawn from 17/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 25% | Draw 35% | Hannover 96 40%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 53%, Hannover 96 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 63% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hannover 96's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Hannover 96 arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.79. Form held, and they took the win. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.