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Poisson model rates Preußen Münster at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this SSV Ulm 1846 vs Preußen Münster fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

SSV Ulm 1846 host Preußen Münster at Donaustadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 May 2025 at 14:30 UTC.

Form Guide

SSV Ulm 1846 — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

SSV Ulm 1846's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Donaustadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Preußen Münster have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Preußen Münster have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (SSV Ulm 1846) versus 1.20 (Preußen Münster). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, SSV Ulm 1846 have won 0, Preußen Münster 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

SSV Ulm 1846 in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Preußen Münster in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Ulm 1846 58% versus Preußen Münster 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Ulm 1846 46% | Preußen Münster 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Ulm 1846 1.18 xG and Preußen Münster 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.833 / defence 1.078 | Preußen Münster attack 0.977 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.316. Data: 33 SSV Ulm 1846 games / 33 Preußen Münster games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 30% | Draw 29% | Preußen Münster 40%. Fair-value odds: SSV Ulm 1846 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Preußen Münster 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Preußen Münster are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Preußen Münster offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: SSV Ulm 1846 60% | Preußen Münster 40%.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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