SSV Ulm 1846 2-2 Preußen Münster – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Preußen Münster at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SSV Ulm 1846 face Preußen Münster.

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Match Analysis

SSV Ulm 1846 host Preußen Münster at Donaustadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 34). Kick-off is Sunday 18 May 2025 at 15:30 UK time.

Form Guide

SSV Ulm 1846 — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

SSV Ulm 1846's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Preußen Münster have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

When travelling, Preußen Münster have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (SSV Ulm 1846) versus 1.20 (Preußen Münster). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for SSV Ulm 1846, 0 for Preußen Münster and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 21 Dec 2024, ended SSV Ulm 1846 0–0 Preußen Münster — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

SSV Ulm 1846 in-play and half-time data (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Preußen Münster in-play and half-time data (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Ulm 1846 58% versus Preußen Münster 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Ulm 1846 46% | Preußen Münster 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SSV Ulm 1846 surrender their half-time lead 60% of the time, while Preußen Münster have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 57% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Ulm 1846 1.18 xG and Preußen Münster 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.833 / defence 1.078 | Preußen Münster attack 0.977 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.316. Data: built from SSV Ulm 1846's last 33 games and Preußen Münster's last 33.

Result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 30% | Draw 29% | Preußen Münster 40%. Fair-value odds: SSV Ulm 1846 3.28 | Draw 3.42 | Preußen Münster 2.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Preußen Münster are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Preußen Münster offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SSV Ulm 1846 60% (last 10 home games) | Preußen Münster 40% (last 10 away games).

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