Eintracht Braunschweig 1-4 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees 1. FC Nürnberg travel to Eintracht-Stadion to take on Eintracht Braunschweig. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 May 2025, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Braunschweig stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Eintracht Braunschweig at Eintracht-Stadion this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Nürnberg have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Eintracht Braunschweig) versus 1.00 (1. FC Nürnberg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Eintracht Braunschweig, 3 for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2024, ended 0–1 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
1. FC Nürnberg in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Braunschweig 49% versus 1. FC Nürnberg 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 52% | 1. FC Nürnberg 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.62 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.970 / defence 1.110 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.172 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.316. Data: 67 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 67 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 35% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Nürnberg 39%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | 1. FC Nürnberg 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Nürnberg at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Braunschweig 50% | 1. FC Nürnberg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 35% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Nürnberg 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.62 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.970 / def 1.110 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.172 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.71
1. FC Nürnberg xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Eintracht Braunschweig 1 - 4 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 35% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Record (5 meetings): Eintracht Braunschweig 1W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Nürnberg 3W.
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eintracht Braunschweig's attack rating (0.97) and 1. FC Nürnberg's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Nürnberg's attack versus Eintracht Braunschweig's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
35%
2.82
25%
3.99
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
3.33
1.71
1. FC Nürnberg xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
18%
5.55
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
6%
15.64
8%
12.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.71 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Braunschweig's recent record stands at 19W 16D 32L from 67 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five.
1. FC Nürnberg, meanwhile, have gone 24W 13D 30L across 67 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Braunschweig on 1.09 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Eintracht Braunschweig have managed 13W 9D 11L from 33 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Nürnberg's away record stands at 10W 7D 16L across 33 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.48 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 67 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Current Season
1. FC Nürnberg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 19W 16D 32L in their last 67 games (1.09 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 24W 13D 30L in their last 67 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.45 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 May 2025, when 1. FC Nürnberg won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Braunschweig's record when hosting 1. FC Nürnberg specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Eintracht Braunschweig
2
Draws
5
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 8 meetings on record, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 1, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Eintracht Braunschweig 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Braunschweig 48%, 1. FC Nürnberg 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Eintracht Braunschweig) and 67% (1. FC Nürnberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Braunschweig keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Braunschweig play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Eintracht Braunschweig's games and 70% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Eintracht Braunschweig's matches and 67% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
Eintracht Braunschweig have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant 1. FC Nürnberg run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Eintracht Braunschweig.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat Eintracht Braunschweig 1-4 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.62 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.71 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg outscored their 1.71 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.97 / defence 1.11 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.17 / defence 1.13, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 35% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Nürnberg 39%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 52%, 1. FC Nürnberg 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Braunschweig 1.09 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.