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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hamburger SV vs SSV Ulm 1846 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Hamburger SV host SSV Ulm 1846 at Volksparkstadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 May 2025 at 19:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Hamburger SV — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Hamburger SV's home record at Volksparkstadion: 4W 4D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SSV Ulm 1846 have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

SSV Ulm 1846's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On current form, Hamburger SV have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hamburger SV register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SSV Ulm 1846 in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Hamburger SV, 0 for SSV Ulm 1846 and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Hamburger SV trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.

SSV Ulm 1846 trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hamburger SV 66% and SSV Ulm 1846 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 75% | SSV Ulm 1846 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.67 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.207 / defence 1.073 | SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.705 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.307. Data: 66 Hamburger SV games / 32 SSV Ulm 1846 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 52% | Draw 27% | SSV Ulm 1846 21%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | SSV Ulm 1846 4.76. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 60% | SSV Ulm 1846 60% BTTS from recent games.

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