SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-0 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Schalke 04 at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Schalke 04 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SSV Jahn Regensburg host FC Schalke 04 at Jahnstadion Regensburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 April 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Jahnstadion Regensburg, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — SSV Jahn Regensburg are significantly better at Jahnstadion Regensburg than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Schalke 04 stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, FC Schalke 04 have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC Schalke 04 — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for SSV Jahn Regensburg, 2 for FC Schalke 04 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 0–2 with FC Schalke 04 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SSV Jahn Regensburg in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
FC Schalke 04 in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 30% versus FC Schalke 04 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 50% | FC Schalke 04 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.10 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.723 / defence 0.870 | FC Schalke 04 attack 1.088 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.270. SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack strength of 0.723 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 28 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 62 FC Schalke 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 32% | Draw 31% | FC Schalke 04 37%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | FC Schalke 04 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Schalke 04 are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Schalke 04 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SSV Jahn Regensburg 30% | FC Schalke 04 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 32% | Draw 31% | FC Schalke 04 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.10 / FC Schalke 04 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.723 / def 0.870 | FC Schalke 04 attack 1.088 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: FC Schalke 04 (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.20
FC Schalke 04 xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Schalke 04?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 2 - 0 FC Schalke 04.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Schalke 04 is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 32% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Schalke 04 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC Schalke 04 will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC Schalke 04?
Record (3 meetings): SSV Jahn Regensburg 1W | Draws 0 | FC Schalke 04 2W.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC Schalke 04 in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack at 0.72x the league average against FC Schalke 04's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Schalke 04's attack versus SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Schalke 04 Win
32%
3.12
31%
3.27
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.30
1.20
FC Schalke 04 xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
10%
10.38
12%
8.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.1 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.20 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Schalke 04?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SSV Jahn Regensburg come into this having played 30 games, going 6W 5D 19L for 0.77 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, FC Schalke 04 sit at 1.33 PPG from 30 outings (11W 7D 12L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five.
FC Schalke 04 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home form reads 5W 4D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.77 PPG overall — SSV Jahn Regensburg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Schalke 04 have taken 1.13 points per game from 15 outings (4W 5D 6L).
The Goals Picture
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.13 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 1.67 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Jahn Regensburg have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games; FC Schalke 04 in 67%.
Last 30 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Current Season
FC Schalke 04
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 6W 5D 19L in their last 30 games (0.77 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 11W 7D 12L in their last 30 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 1.27 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC Schalke 04 runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2021, when SSV Jahn Regensburg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's record when hosting FC Schalke 04 specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
SSV Jahn Regensburg
0
Draws
2
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC Schalke 04?
From 4 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 2, FC Schalke 04 have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-0 FC Schalke 04.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SSV Jahn Regensburg 27%, FC Schalke 04 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (SSV Jahn Regensburg) and 53% (FC Schalke 04).
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SSV Jahn Regensburg have failed to score in 53% of games; FC Schalke 04 in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play FC Schalke 04?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent matches and 53% of FC Schalke 04's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Schalke 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent games and 53% of FC Schalke 04's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC Schalke 04 tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Schalke 04 in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SSV Jahn Regensburg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Schalke 04.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SSV Jahn Regensburg beat FC Schalke 04 2-0 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 29, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.10 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.20 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SSV Jahn Regensburg beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Schalke 04 landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.72 / defence 0.87 against FC Schalke 04 attack 1.09 / defence 1.04, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 32% | Draw 31% | FC Schalke 04 37%, with FC Schalke 04 to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual SSV Jahn Regensburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 50%, FC Schalke 04 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Schalke 04 arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.77. Form was overturned, with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.