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Poisson rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SSV Ulm 1846 vs 1. FC Magdeburg encounter.

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Match Analysis

SSV Ulm 1846 host 1. FC Magdeburg at Donaustadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 April 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, SSV Ulm 1846 stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

SSV Ulm 1846's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Donaustadion this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

1. FC Magdeburg's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour 1. FC Magdeburg — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for SSV Ulm 1846, 0 for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

SSV Ulm 1846 in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

1. FC Magdeburg in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SSV Ulm 1846 57% and 1. FC Magdeburg 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Ulm 1846 43% | 1. FC Magdeburg 71%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Ulm 1846 1.12 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.786 / defence 1.009 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.348 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.262. SSV Ulm 1846's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. 1. FC Magdeburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.348 — the away xG of 1.72 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 28 SSV Ulm 1846 games / 62 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 24% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Magdeburg 50%. Fair-value odds: SSV Ulm 1846 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | 1. FC Magdeburg 2.00. 1. FC Magdeburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Magdeburg at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SSV Ulm 1846 50% | 1. FC Magdeburg 80% BTTS from recent games.

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