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SpVgg Greuther Fürth cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SV Elversberg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat SV Elversberg 2-0 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.38 xG and SV Elversberg 2.08 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SV Elversberg landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.02 / defence 1.31 against SV Elversberg attack 1.17 / defence 0.90, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24% | Draw 23% | SV Elversberg 53%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a SpVgg Greuther Fürth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%, SV Elversberg 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

SV Elversberg's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights