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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SC Paderborn 07 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SpVgg Greuther Fürth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Paderborn 07 beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-2 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 28, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.36 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.51 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.02 / defence 1.16 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.98 / defence 0.83, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 33% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 40%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%, SC Paderborn 07 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights