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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 32, as SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.59 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.42 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.01 / defence 1.19 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.92 / defence 1.00, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Nürnberg 33%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63%, 1. FC Nürnberg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.11 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights