SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SpVgg Greuther Fürth face 1. FC Nürnberg.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth host 1. FC Nürnberg at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 32). Kick-off is Sunday 3 May 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Guide
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, 1. FC Nürnberg have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
1. FC Nürnberg's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 1.40 PPG versus 1. FC Nürnberg's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 3 for 1. FC Nürnberg and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Dec 2025, ended SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2–2 1. FC Nürnberg — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
1. FC Nürnberg in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 45%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% and 1. FC Nürnberg 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63% | 1. FC Nürnberg 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SpVgg Greuther Fürth surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while 1. FC Nürnberg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.59 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.009 / defence 1.189 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.924 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.289. Data: built from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 65 games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 65.
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Nürnberg 33%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.48 | Draw 3.74 | 1. FC Nürnberg 3.04. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.59 / 1.42) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SpVgg Greuther Fürth are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 home games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Nürnberg 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 32 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Nürnberg 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.59 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.009 / def 1.189 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.924 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.42
1. FC Nürnberg xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg FAQs
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 - 1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 32) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 40% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack at 1.01x the league average against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Nürnberg's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 65 games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
40%
2.48
27%
3.74
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.00
1.42
1. FC Nürnberg xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
10%
10.22
7%
14.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.1 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.42 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record stands at 19W 15D 31L from 65 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five.
1. FC Nürnberg, meanwhile, have gone 25W 14D 26L across 65 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.11 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have managed 11W 9D 12L from their last 32 home games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Nürnberg's away record stands at 9W 8D 15L across their last 32 away games, a 1.09 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.54 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; 1. FC Nürnberg in 63%.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Current Season
1. FC Nürnberg
Current Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (Home) vs 1. FC Nürnberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Current Season
1. FC Nürnberg
Current Season
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg Form FAQs
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 19W 15D 31L in their last 65 games (1.11 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 25W 14D 26L in their last 65 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.31 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 15 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Oct 2024, when 1. FC Nürnberg won SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-4 1. FC Nürnberg.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting 1. FC Nürnberg specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
3
Draws
4
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-4 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 62%, 1. FC Nürnberg at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 62% for 1. FC Nürnberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 75% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 62% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 75% of 1. FC Nürnberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 32, as SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Nürnberg drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.59 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.42 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.01 / defence 1.19 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.92 / defence 1.00, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Nürnberg 33%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63%, 1. FC Nürnberg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.11 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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