SC Paderborn 07 1-2 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Elversberg at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 host SV Elversberg at Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 December 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Home Deluxe Arena this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Home Deluxe Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SV Elversberg stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SV Elversberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Elversberg's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
On current form, SC Paderborn 07 have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for SC Paderborn 07, 1 for SV Elversberg and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
SV Elversberg in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 65% versus SV Elversberg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 58% | SV Elversberg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.29 xG and SV Elversberg 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.002 / defence 1.032 | SV Elversberg attack 1.224 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.288. SV Elversberg have an above-average attack strength of 1.224 — the away xG of 1.63 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 SC Paderborn 07 games / 48 SV Elversberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 30% | Draw 24% | SV Elversberg 45%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | SV Elversberg 2.22. SV Elversberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SV Elversberg as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SC Paderborn 07 (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 70% | SV Elversberg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 30% | Draw 24% | SV Elversberg 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.29 / SV Elversberg 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.002 / def 1.032 | SV Elversberg attack 1.224 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.63
SV Elversberg xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg?
SC Paderborn 07 1 - 2 SV Elversberg.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 30% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg?
Record (4 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 2W | Draws 1 | SV Elversberg 1W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. SV Elversberg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 1.00x the league average against SV Elversberg's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SV Elversberg's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
30%
3.29
24%
4.11
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.92
1.63
SV Elversberg xG
3.29
30%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
20%
5.08
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
6%
16.73
12%
8.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.8 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.63 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 24W 12D 12L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Elversberg's form line: 24W 12D 12L from 48 games, 1.75 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-D. The sample for SV Elversberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Paderborn 07 on 1.75 PPG, SV Elversberg on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 1.75 PPG from 24 outings (13W 3D 8L).
On the road, SV Elversberg have gone 11W 7D 6L from 24 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.92 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: SV Elversberg in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
SV Elversberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 24W 12D 12L in their last 48 games (1.75 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 24W 12D 12L in their last 48 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or SV Elversberg away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.75 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 1.67 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or SV Elversberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, SV Elversberg in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
SV Elversberg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2026, when SV Elversberg won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting SV Elversberg specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
SC Paderborn 07
1
Draws
3
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg?
From 6 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, SV Elversberg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when SV Elversberg 5-1 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 67%, SV Elversberg 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (SC Paderborn 07) and 46% (SV Elversberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg in 33%; SV Elversberg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play SV Elversberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 46% of SV Elversberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 46% of SV Elversberg's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SV Elversberg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SV Elversberg edge out SC Paderborn 07 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Elversberg beat SC Paderborn 07 1-2 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.29 xG and SV Elversberg 1.63 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.00 / defence 1.03 against SV Elversberg attack 1.22 / defence 0.88, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 30% | Draw 24% | SV Elversberg 45%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 58%, SV Elversberg 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
SV Elversberg's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.75 PPG, SV Elversberg 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Elversberg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.