🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 15 as 1. FC Nürnberg welcome SpVgg Greuther Fürth to Max-Morlock-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 December 2025 at 12:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

1. FC Nürnberg's home record at Max-Morlock-Stadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Max-Morlock-Stadion this season.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

1. FC Nürnberg carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. 1. FC Nürnberg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for 1. FC Nürnberg, 2 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2025, ended 3–0 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

1. FC Nürnberg in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Nürnberg 62% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Nürnberg 67% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 2.02 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.913 / defence 0.926 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.120 / defence 1.524. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.281. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.524 — this is suppressing 1. FC Nürnberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 1. FC Nürnberg games / 48 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 54% | Draw 21% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 25%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.85 | Draw 4.76 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.00. 1. FC Nürnberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 60% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights