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Poisson model rates FC Schalke 04 at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 14 as FC Schalke 04 welcome SC Paderborn 07 to Veltins Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 28 November 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Schalke 04 stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Schalke 04 at Veltins Arena this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Schalke 04 2.20 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 2.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for FC Schalke 04, 2 for SC Paderborn 07 and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2025, ended 0–2 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Schalke 04 in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Schalke 04 55% versus SC Paderborn 07 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Schalke 04 57% | SC Paderborn 07 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Schalke 04 0.91 xG and SC Paderborn 07 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Schalke 04 attack 0.857 / defence 0.693 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.975 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.327. SC Paderborn 07's defence strength of 0.732 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. FC Schalke 04's defence rating of 0.693 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 FC Schalke 04 games / 47 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 34% | Draw 33% | SC Paderborn 07 33%. Fair-value odds: FC Schalke 04 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | SC Paderborn 07 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — SC Paderborn 07's lower xG of 0.90 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Schalke 04 are the pick at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Schalke 04 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.81 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates are neutral: FC Schalke 04 50% | SC Paderborn 07 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Veltins Arena • Kick-off: Friday 28 Nov 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (6 meetings): FC Schalke 04 3W | Draws 1 | SC Paderborn 07 2W • Goals trend: 3.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: FC Schalke 04 11 – 10 SC Paderborn 07 • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: FC Schalke 04 50% / Draw 17% / SC Paderborn 07 33% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 34% / draw 33% / away 33% • Goals contradiction: H2H averages 3.50 goals/game (50% Over historically) but Poisson total xG is only 1.81 (73% Under probability) — current defensive form is likely suppressing the model vs historical scoring patterns • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 35% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-D • SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L • FC Schalke 04 home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | CS 3 • SC Paderborn 07 away split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | CS 4 • Form edge: minimal separation (FC Schalke 04 2.20 PPG vs SC Paderborn 07 2.50 PPG) • xG vs form (FC Schalke 04): Poisson projects 0.91 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.20 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (SC Paderborn 07): Poisson projects 0.90 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.50 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Under 2.5 corroborated — form projects ~1.9 total goals, Poisson xG sum 1.81 (73% Under 2.5 probability) • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 35% — no strong positional edge
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 34% | Draw 33% | SC Paderborn 07 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG FC Schalke 04 0.91 / SC Paderborn 07 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: FC Schalke 04 attack 0.857 / def 0.693 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.975 / def 0.732 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: FC Schalke 04 (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
FC Schalke 04 xG
Expected Goals
0.90
SC Paderborn 07 xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 28 November 2025 at Veltins Arena.
What was the final score in FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07?
FC Schalke 04 2 - 1 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Veltins Arena.
What competition is FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives FC Schalke 04 a 34% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making FC Schalke 04 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both FC Schalke 04 and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and SC Paderborn 07?
• Record (6 meetings): FC Schalke 04 3W | Draws 1 | SC Paderborn 07 2W • Goals trend: 3.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: FC Schalke 04 11 – 10 SC Paderborn 07 • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: FC Schalke 04 50% / Draw 17% / SC Paderborn 07 33% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 34% / draw 33% / away 33% • Goals contradiction: H2H averages 3.50 goals/game (50% Over historically) but Poisson total xG is only 1.81 (73% Under probability) — current defensive form is likely suppressing the model vs historical scoring patterns • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 35% — no strong aligned signal
What form are FC Schalke 04 and SC Paderborn 07 in?
• FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-D • SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L • FC Schalke 04 home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | CS 3 • SC Paderborn 07 away split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | CS 4 • Form edge: minimal separation (FC Schalke 04 2.20 PPG vs SC Paderborn 07 2.50 PPG) • xG vs form (FC Schalke 04): Poisson projects 0.91 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.20 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (SC Paderborn 07): Poisson projects 0.90 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.50 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Under 2.5 corroborated — form projects ~1.9 total goals, Poisson xG sum 1.81 (73% Under 2.5 probability) • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 35% — no strong positional edge
What do the betting odds say about FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture