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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Preußen Münster and SV Darmstadt 98 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Preussenstadion, Regular Season - 33, as Preußen Münster and SV Darmstadt 98 drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 1.50 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.67 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 0.80 / defence 1.25 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.05 / defence 1.17, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 33% | Draw 26% | SV Darmstadt 98 41%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 53%, SV Darmstadt 98 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preußen Münster's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights