Preußen Münster 1-1 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Preußen Münster face SV Darmstadt 98.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Preussenstadion plays host to Preußen Münster versus SV Darmstadt 98 in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 33). Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Form
Preußen Münster (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Preußen Münster at home: 0W 5D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SV Darmstadt 98 have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
SV Darmstadt 98 away from home: 0W 6D 4L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Preußen Münster against 0.90 for SV Darmstadt 98. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Preußen Münster's last 10 home games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Preußen Münster's games and 90% of SV Darmstadt 98's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, SV Darmstadt 98 edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2025, ended Preußen Münster 0–1 SV Darmstadt 98 — a SV Darmstadt 98 win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Preußen Münster half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
SV Darmstadt 98 half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Preußen Münster 64% and SV Darmstadt 98 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preußen Münster 53% | SV Darmstadt 98 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Preußen Münster surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while SV Darmstadt 98 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 56% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that SV Darmstadt 98 surrender HT leads in 47% of cases while Preußen Münster recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preußen Münster 1.50 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preußen Münster attack 0.797 / defence 1.255 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.049 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.270. Preußen Münster's attack rating of 0.797 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.50. Preußen Münster's defence rating of 1.255 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SV Darmstadt 98's projected output up. Data: built from Preußen Münster's last 66 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 66.
Result probabilities: Preußen Münster 33% | Draw 26% | SV Darmstadt 98 41%. Fair-value odds: Preußen Münster 3.01 | Draw 3.83 | SV Darmstadt 98 2.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.50 / 1.67) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Preußen Münster's last 10 home games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Preußen Münster 70% (last 10 home games) | SV Darmstadt 98 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 33 | Venue: Preussenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preußen Münster 33% | Draw 26% | SV Darmstadt 98 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Preußen Münster 1.50 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Preußen Münster attack 0.797 / def 1.255 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.049 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.605 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Preußen Münster xG
Expected Goals
1.67
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98 FAQs
What time does Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Preussenstadion.
What was the final score in Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Preußen Münster 1 - 1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Preussenstadion.
What competition is Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 33) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives Preußen Münster a 33% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Preußen Münster and SV Darmstadt 98 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Preußen Münster's attack at 0.80x the league average against SV Darmstadt 98's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SV Darmstadt 98's attack (1.05x) against Preußen Münster's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from Preußen Münster's last 66 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
33%
3.01
26%
3.83
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Preußen Münster xG
Total xG
3.17
1.67
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
6%
15.98
9%
11.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Preußen Münster and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Preußen Münster and 1.67 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Preußen Münster come into this having played 66 games, going 14W 23D 29L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 1.41 PPG from 66 outings (24W 21D 21L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five.
SV Darmstadt 98 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Preußen Münster — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Preußen Münster's home form reads 7W 14D 12L across their last 33 home games, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 0.91 points per game from their last 33 away games (6W 12D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SV Darmstadt 98's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Preußen Münster are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.70 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Preußen Münster have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; SV Darmstadt 98 in 65%.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preußen Münster
Current Season
SV Darmstadt 98
Current Season
Preußen Münster (Home) vs SV Darmstadt 98 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Preußen Münster
Current Season
SV Darmstadt 98
Current Season
❓ Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98 Form FAQs
What form are Preußen Münster and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
Preußen Münster have gone 14W 23D 29L in their last 66 games (0.98 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 24W 21D 21L in their last 66 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preußen Münster at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
Preußen Münster's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preußen Münster at home: 1.06 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 10 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Preußen Münster have gone 0W 2D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Preußen Münster
3
Draws
1
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Preußen Münster and SV Darmstadt 98?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Preußen Münster have won 0, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Preußen Münster and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2026: Preußen Münster 1-1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between Preußen Münster and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Preußen Münster are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 64% of those situations.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 64% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Preußen Münster, 79% for SV Darmstadt 98 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Preußen Münster) and 73% (SV Darmstadt 98). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preußen Münster home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Preußen Münster vs SV Darmstadt 98 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Preußen Münster and SV Darmstadt 98 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Preußen Münster's games and 79% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Preußen Münster and SV Darmstadt 98 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Preußen Münster's matches and 73% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do Preußen Münster and SV Darmstadt 98 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Preußen Münster's recent matches and 61% of SV Darmstadt 98's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Preußen Münster and SV Darmstadt 98 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Preussenstadion, Regular Season - 33, as Preußen Münster and SV Darmstadt 98 drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 1.50 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.67 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 0.80 / defence 1.25 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.05 / defence 1.17, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 33% | Draw 26% | SV Darmstadt 98 41%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 53%, SV Darmstadt 98 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preußen Münster's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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