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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Karlsruher SC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SpVgg Greuther Fürth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karlsruher SC beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-1 at BBBank Wildpark, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karlsruher SC 1.96 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.67 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Karlsruher SC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karlsruher SC attack 1.14 / defence 1.27 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.99 / defence 1.10, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karlsruher SC 44% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 32%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karlsruher SC 72%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karlsruher SC's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karlsruher SC 1.43 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karlsruher SC win broke the near-deadlock. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights