Karlsruher SC 1-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Karlsruher SC at 45%, yet in-form Fortuna Düsseldorf provide a compelling counter-argument — this Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

Karlsruher SC welcome Fortuna Düsseldorf to BBBank Wildpark in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 21). Kick-off is Sunday 8 February 2026 at 12:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Karlsruher SC have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Karlsruher SC at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Karlsruher SC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 0D 7L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Fortuna Düsseldorf — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Karlsruher SC's games and 60% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's (from Karlsruher SC's last 10 home games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

Despite the home advantage, Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 9 H2H matches against 0 for Karlsruher SC.

The 9 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.1 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Aug 2025, ended Karlsruher SC 0–0 Fortuna Düsseldorf — a draw.

The H2H data backs the away side. Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 5 of 9 H2H matches, and at 3.1 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

In-Play Data

Karlsruher SC trading profile (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Karlsruher SC 63% and Fortuna Düsseldorf 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karlsruher SC 70% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Karlsruher SC surrender their half-time lead 60% of the time, while Fortuna Düsseldorf have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Karlsruher SC 1.69 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karlsruher SC attack 1.096 / defence 1.228 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.798 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.348. Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack rating of 0.798 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.32. Karlsruher SC's defence rating of 1.228 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fortuna Düsseldorf's projected output up. Data: built from Karlsruher SC's last 54 games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 54.

Result probabilities: Karlsruher SC 45% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 29%. Fair-value odds: Karlsruher SC 2.22 | Draw 3.86 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.44. Karlsruher SC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.69 / 1.32) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Karlsruher SC as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fortuna Düsseldorf (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karlsruher SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Karlsruher SC's last 10 home games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Karlsruher SC 60% (last 10 home games) | Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% (last 10 away games).

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