Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-1 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 20 as Fortuna Düsseldorf welcome SC Paderborn 07 to Merkur Spiel-Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 February 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf at Merkur Spiel-Arena this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. SC Paderborn 07's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Fortuna Düsseldorf's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 4 for SC Paderborn 07 and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% and SC Paderborn 07 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 57% | SC Paderborn 07 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.04 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.846 / defence 1.036 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.033 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.298. Data: 53 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 53 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 28% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 45%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | SC Paderborn 07 2.22. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% | SC Paderborn 07 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 28% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.04 / SC Paderborn 07 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.846 / def 1.036 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.033 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.39
SC Paderborn 07 xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 2 - 1 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 28% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (9 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 3W | Draws 2 | SC Paderborn 07 4W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fortuna Düsseldorf's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
28%
3.62
28%
3.59
45%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
2.42
1.39
SC Paderborn 07 xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.25
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
7%
14.50
16%
6.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.39 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fortuna Düsseldorf come into this having played 53 games, going 20W 13D 20L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.72 PPG from 53 outings (26W 13D 14L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.38 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home form reads 10W 6D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.73 points per game from 26 outings (12W 9D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.62 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; SC Paderborn 07 in 64%.
Last 53 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 20W 13D 20L in their last 53 games (1.38 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 26W 13D 14L in their last 53 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.38 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Fortuna Düsseldorf have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Feb 2023, when SC Paderborn 07 won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fortuna Düsseldorf
2
Draws
4
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 4, SC Paderborn 07 have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-1 SC Paderborn 07.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 54%, SC Paderborn 07 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Fortuna Düsseldorf) and 50% (SC Paderborn 07).
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 58% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent games and 50% of SC Paderborn 07's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fortuna Düsseldorf defy the odds to beat SC Paderborn 07 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat SC Paderborn 07 2-1 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.04 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.39 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.85 / defence 1.04 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.03 / defence 0.87, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 28% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 45%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Fortuna Düsseldorf win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 57%, SC Paderborn 07 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.38 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Düsseldorf win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.