Holstein Kiel 1-1 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Elversberg at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
SV Elversberg travel to Holstein-Stadion to take on Holstein Kiel in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Holstein Kiel have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Holstein Kiel's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, SV Elversberg stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, SV Elversberg have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SV Elversberg are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Holstein Kiel's games and 70% of SV Elversberg's (from Holstein Kiel's last 10 home games and SV Elversberg's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Holstein Kiel, 1 for SV Elversberg and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended Holstein Kiel 0–1 SV Elversberg — a SV Elversberg win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Holstein Kiel in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
SV Elversberg in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Holstein Kiel 70% and SV Elversberg 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Holstein Kiel 67% | SV Elversberg 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Holstein Kiel surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while SV Elversberg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 58% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.12 xG and SV Elversberg 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 0.819 / defence 1.025 | SV Elversberg attack 1.231 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.353. SV Elversberg have an above-average attack rating of 1.231, which lifts their away xG to 1.71. Data: built from Holstein Kiel's last 23 games and SV Elversberg's last 57.
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 23% | Draw 28% | SV Elversberg 49%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 4.34 | Draw 3.59 | SV Elversberg 2.04. SV Elversberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Elversberg at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Holstein Kiel's last 10 home games and SV Elversberg's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Holstein Kiel 60% (last 10 home games) | SV Elversberg 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 24 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 23% | Draw 28% | SV Elversberg 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Holstein Kiel 1.12 / SV Elversberg 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 0.819 / def 1.025 | SV Elversberg attack 1.231 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.71
SV Elversberg xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg FAQs
What time does Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg?
Holstein Kiel 1 - 1 SV Elversberg.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg part of?
Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 24) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 23% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Holstein Kiel and SV Elversberg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Holstein Kiel's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against SV Elversberg's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, SV Elversberg's attack versus Holstein Kiel's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Holstein Kiel's last 23 games and SV Elversberg's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
23%
4.34
28%
3.59
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
2.83
1.71
SV Elversberg xG
4.34
23%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
18%
5.52
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
4%
23.97
16%
6.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.71 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Holstein Kiel come into this having played 57 games, going 12W 13D 32L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, SV Elversberg sit at 1.77 PPG from 57 outings (29W 14D 14L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five.
SV Elversberg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Holstein Kiel — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Holstein Kiel's home form reads 8W 4D 16L across their last 28 home games, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Elversberg have taken 1.79 points per game from their last 28 away games (14W 8D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Elversberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.88 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Blended
SV Elversberg
Blended
Holstein Kiel (Home) vs SV Elversberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Holstein Kiel
Blended
SV Elversberg
Blended
❓ Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg Form FAQs
What form are Holstein Kiel and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 12W 13D 32L in their last 57 games (0.86 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 29W 14D 14L in their last 57 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or SV Elversberg away?
SV Elversberg's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.00 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Holstein Kiel or SV Elversberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Holstein Kiel have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, SV Elversberg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Holstein Kiel's record when hosting SV Elversberg specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Holstein Kiel
2
Draws
1
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and SV Elversberg?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Holstein Kiel have won 1, SV Elversberg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and SV Elversberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Holstein Kiel 1-1 SV Elversberg.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Holstein Kiel 57%, SV Elversberg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Holstein Kiel) and 50% (SV Elversberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Holstein Kiel have failed to score in 29% of games; SV Elversberg in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Holstein Kiel vs SV Elversberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Holstein Kiel and SV Elversberg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Holstein Kiel's games and 54% of SV Elversberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Holstein Kiel and SV Elversberg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 50% of SV Elversberg's.
Do Holstein Kiel and SV Elversberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Holstein Kiel's recent matches and 71% of SV Elversberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Holstein Kiel and SV Elversberg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel and SV Elversberg finished level at 1-1 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.12 xG and SV Elversberg 1.71 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.82 / defence 1.02 against SV Elversberg attack 1.23 / defence 0.87, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 23% | Draw 28% | SV Elversberg 49%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 67%, SV Elversberg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
SV Elversberg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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