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Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum finished level at 1-1 at Olympiastadion, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.32 xG and VfL Bochum 1.13 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.89 / defence 0.97 against VfL Bochum attack 0.86 / defence 0.98, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 40% | Draw 30% | VfL Bochum 30%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 54%, VfL Bochum 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hertha BSC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

VfL Bochum's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Hertha BSC arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights