Hertha BSC 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hertha BSC face SpVgg Greuther Fürth.

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Match Analysis

Hertha BSC host SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Olympiastadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 33). Kick-off is Sunday 10 May 2026 at 13:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Hertha BSC — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Hertha BSC have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hertha BSC 1.40 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Hertha BSC have won 4, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 12 Dec 2025, ended Hertha BSC 3–3 SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).

SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 54% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 50% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.14 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.679 / defence 0.976 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.856 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.270. Hertha BSC's attack rating of 0.679 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.14. Data: built from Hertha BSC's last 66 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 66.

Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 36% | Draw 32% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 32%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.79 | Draw 3.08 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.15. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Hertha BSC at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Hertha BSC 50% (last 10 home games) | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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