Hertha BSC 1-0 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hertha BSC (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hertha BSC face Eintracht Braunschweig.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Hertha BSC welcome Eintracht Braunschweig to Olympiastadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 21 November 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hertha BSC stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hertha BSC have posted 4W 4D 2L at Olympiastadion — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Eintracht Braunschweig — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Braunschweig's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Hertha BSC are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 1.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Hertha BSC: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Eintracht Braunschweig, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2025, ended 5–1 with Hertha BSC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Hertha BSC and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 54% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 52% | Eintracht Braunschweig 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.37 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.833 / defence 0.817 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.891 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.328. Data: 46 Hertha BSC games / 46 Eintracht Braunschweig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 46% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Braunschweig 27%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Eintracht Braunschweig 3.70. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hertha BSC 40% | Eintracht Braunschweig 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Olympiastadion • Kick-off: Friday 21 Nov 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 46% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Braunschweig 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Hertha BSC 1.37 / Eintracht Braunschweig 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.833 / def 0.817 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.891 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 21 November 2025 at Olympiastadion.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Hertha BSC 1 - 0 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 46% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Hertha BSC and Eintracht Braunschweig will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Record (4 meetings): Hertha BSC 3W | Draws 1 | Eintracht Braunschweig 0W.
What form are Hertha BSC and Eintracht Braunschweig in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hertha BSC's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Eintracht Braunschweig's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Braunschweig's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
46%
2.17
27%
3.65
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.33
0.97
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
25%
3.92
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
7%
14.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.8 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 0.97 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hertha BSC's recent record stands at 18W 10D 18L from 46 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Braunschweig, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 21L across 46 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hertha BSC on 1.39 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hertha BSC have managed 7W 6D 10L from 23 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Braunschweig's away record stands at 5W 6D 12L across 23 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.13 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 46 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 18W 10D 18L in their last 46 games (1.39 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 12W 13D 21L in their last 46 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.17 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hertha BSC and Eintracht Braunschweig runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2025, when Hertha BSC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting Eintracht Braunschweig specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Hertha BSC
2
Draws
0
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Eintracht Braunschweig?
From 7 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 5, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Eintracht Braunschweig 3-5 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Hertha BSC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 52%, Eintracht Braunschweig 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Hertha BSC) and 52% (Eintracht Braunschweig).
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC have failed to score in 30% of games; Eintracht Braunschweig in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Hertha BSC's recent matches and 56% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hertha BSC vs Eintracht Braunschweig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Hertha BSC's recent games and 52% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hertha BSC and Eintracht Braunschweig tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Eintracht Braunschweig in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hertha BSC edge out Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 at Olympiastadion, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.37 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 0.97 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Eintracht Braunschweig landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.83 / defence 0.82 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.89 / defence 1.14, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 46% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Braunschweig 27%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 52%, Eintracht Braunschweig 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hertha BSC 1.39 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hertha BSC win broke the near-deadlock. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.