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Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees SpVgg Greuther Fürth travel to Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor to take on SV Darmstadt 98. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SV Darmstadt 98 stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — SV Darmstadt 98 are significantly better at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor than their overall form suggests.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
SV Darmstadt 98 are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for SV Darmstadt 98, 1 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Darmstadt 98 63% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 61% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 2.00 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.993 / defence 0.832 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.049 / defence 1.432. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.317. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.432 — this is suppressing SV Darmstadt 98's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 46 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 57% | Draw 21% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 21%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.76. The model has a clear lean to SV Darmstadt 98 (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SV Darmstadt 98 50% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (4 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 2W | Draws 1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W • Goals trend: 3.25 goals/game | Total H2H goals: SV Darmstadt 98 7 – 6 SpVgg Greuther Fürth • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: SV Darmstadt 98 50% / Draw 25% / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 25% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 57% / draw 21% / away 21% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.25 goals/game (50% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.15 (61% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 59% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-D-W • SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W • SV Darmstadt 98 home split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | CS 4 • SpVgg Greuther Fürth away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | CS 0 • Form edge: SV Darmstadt 98 lead by 0.60 PPG (1.60 vs 1.00) • xG vs form (SV Darmstadt 98): Poisson projects 2.00 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.70 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (SpVgg Greuther Fürth): Poisson xG of 1.15 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.20 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.2 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.15 (61% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 59% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on SV Darmstadt 98 — SV Darmstadt 98 at 57% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 57% | Draw 21% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 2.00 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.993 / def 0.832 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.049 / def 1.432 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (57%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SV Darmstadt 98 4 - 2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 57% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 21% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
• Record (4 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 2W | Draws 1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W • Goals trend: 3.25 goals/game | Total H2H goals: SV Darmstadt 98 7 – 6 SpVgg Greuther Fürth • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: SV Darmstadt 98 50% / Draw 25% / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 25% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 57% / draw 21% / away 21% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.25 goals/game (50% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.15 (61% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 59% — no strong aligned signal
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
• SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-D-W • SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W • SV Darmstadt 98 home split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | CS 4 • SpVgg Greuther Fürth away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | CS 0 • Form edge: SV Darmstadt 98 lead by 0.60 PPG (1.60 vs 1.00) • xG vs form (SV Darmstadt 98): Poisson projects 2.00 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.70 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (SpVgg Greuther Fürth): Poisson xG of 1.15 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.20 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.2 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.15 (61% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 59% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on SV Darmstadt 98 — SV Darmstadt 98 at 57% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture