Hansa Rostock 1-0 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hansa Rostock at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Eintracht Braunschweig travel to Ostseestadion to take on Hansa Rostock in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 8). The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 September 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Hansa Rostock have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Hansa Rostock have gone 5W 0D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Eintracht Braunschweig — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Eintracht Braunschweig's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Hansa Rostock are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Hansa Rostock's games and 70% of Eintracht Braunschweig's (from Hansa Rostock's last 10 home games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Hansa Rostock have won 2, Eintracht Braunschweig 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 May 2023, ended Hansa Rostock 2–1 Eintracht Braunschweig — a Hansa Rostock win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hansa Rostock trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Eintracht Braunschweig trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 39% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 44% | Eintracht Braunschweig 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.77 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.892 / defence 1.095 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.744 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.746 / away 1.353. Eintracht Braunschweig's attack rating of 0.744 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Data: built from Hansa Rostock's last 41 games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 41.
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 52% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Braunschweig 23%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 1.91 | Draw 4.13 | Eintracht Braunschweig 4.29. Hansa Rostock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hansa Rostock are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hansa Rostock's last 10 home games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hansa Rostock 60% (last 10 home games) | Eintracht Braunschweig 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 8 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 52% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Braunschweig 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Hansa Rostock 1.77 / Eintracht Braunschweig 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.892 / def 1.095 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.744 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.746 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig FAQs
What time does Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Hansa Rostock 1 - 0 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 8) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 52% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hansa Rostock and Eintracht Braunschweig will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hansa Rostock's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Eintracht Braunschweig's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Braunschweig's attack versus Hansa Rostock's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hansa Rostock's last 41 games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
52%
1.91
24%
4.13
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.87
1.10
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
4%
25.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.1 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.10 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hansa Rostock's recent record stands at 15W 5D 21L from 41 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Eintracht Braunschweig, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 20L across 41 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hansa Rostock on 1.22 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hansa Rostock have managed 8W 1D 11L from their last 20 home games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Braunschweig's away record stands at 2W 6D 12L across their last 20 away games, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hansa Rostock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.15 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Braunschweig in 61%.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Early Season
Eintracht Braunschweig
Early Season
Hansa Rostock (Home) vs Eintracht Braunschweig (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hansa Rostock
Early Season
Eintracht Braunschweig
Early Season
❓ Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig Form FAQs
What form are Hansa Rostock and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 15W 5D 21L in their last 41 games (1.22 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 10W 11D 20L in their last 41 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
Hansa Rostock's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 1.25 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 8 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Hansa Rostock have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Hansa Rostock's record when hosting Eintracht Braunschweig specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Hansa Rostock
0
Draws
0
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Hansa Rostock have won 4, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2024: Eintracht Braunschweig 0-1 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Hansa Rostock have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 45%, Eintracht Braunschweig 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Hansa Rostock) and 65% (Eintracht Braunschweig). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hansa Rostock vs Eintracht Braunschweig Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hansa Rostock and Eintracht Braunschweig matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Hansa Rostock's games and 70% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hansa Rostock and Eintracht Braunschweig matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Hansa Rostock's matches and 65% of Eintracht Braunschweig's.
Do Hansa Rostock and Eintracht Braunschweig matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Hansa Rostock's recent matches and 65% of Eintracht Braunschweig's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hansa Rostock edge out Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hansa Rostock beat Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 8, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.77 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.10 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Eintracht Braunschweig landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.89 / defence 1.09 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.74 / defence 1.13, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 52% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Braunschweig 23%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 44%, Eintracht Braunschweig 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hansa Rostock 1.22 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hansa Rostock win broke the near-deadlock. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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