SC Paderborn 07 3-1 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SC Paderborn 07 face FC Schalke 04.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 host FC Schalke 04 at Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 8). Kick-off is Friday 29 September 2023 at 18:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
SC Paderborn 07 at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — SC Paderborn 07 are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Schalke 04 stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.70. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, FC Schalke 04 have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (SC Paderborn 07) versus 0.80 (FC Schalke 04). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 60% of FC Schalke 04's (from SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and FC Schalke 04's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for SC Paderborn 07, 2 for FC Schalke 04 and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 18 Feb 2022, ended SC Paderborn 07 0–2 FC Schalke 04 — a FC Schalke 04 win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
FC Schalke 04 in-play tendencies (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 61% versus FC Schalke 04 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 71% | FC Schalke 04 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 2.17 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.950 / defence 1.048 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.898 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 1.744 / away 1.378. FC Schalke 04's defence rating of 1.310 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SC Paderborn 07's projected output up. Data: built from SC Paderborn 07's last 41 games and FC Schalke 04's last 7.
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 57% | Draw 22% | FC Schalke 04 22%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.76 | Draw 4.61 | FC Schalke 04 4.63. The model has a clear lean to SC Paderborn 07 (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.17 / 1.30) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.47 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and FC Schalke 04's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Paderborn 07 70% (last 10 home games) | FC Schalke 04 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 8 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Friday 29 September 2023 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 57% | Draw 22% | FC Schalke 04 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG SC Paderborn 07 2.17 / FC Schalke 04 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.950 / def 1.048 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.898 / def 1.310 | league avg home 1.744 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.30
FC Schalke 04 xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 FAQs
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Friday 29 September 2023 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
SC Paderborn 07 3 - 1 FC Schalke 04.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 8) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 57% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SC Paderborn 07's attack rating (0.95) and FC Schalke 04's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Schalke 04's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SC Paderborn 07's last 41 games and FC Schalke 04's last 7 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.61
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.47
1.30
FC Schalke 04 xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
11%
8.78
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
2%
40.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.30 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Paderborn 07's recent record stands at 18W 9D 14L from 41 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five.
FC Schalke 04, meanwhile, have gone 9W 11D 21L across 41 games — 0.93 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Paderborn 07 by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Schalke 04 heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SC Paderborn 07 have managed 13W 1D 6L from their last 20 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — SC Paderborn 07 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC Schalke 04's away record stands at 2W 6D 12L across their last 20 away games, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 1.15 scored and 2.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
FC Schalke 04
Early Season
SC Paderborn 07 (Home) vs FC Schalke 04 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
FC Schalke 04
Early Season
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 Form FAQs
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 18W 9D 14L in their last 41 games (1.54 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 9W 11D 21L in their last 41 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 26 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Schalke 04 have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting FC Schalke 04 specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
SC Paderborn 07
1
Draws
5
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, FC Schalke 04 have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 April 2026: SC Paderborn 07 2-3 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04?
FC Schalke 04 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 60%, FC Schalke 04 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for SC Paderborn 07 and 50% for FC Schalke 04. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Schalke 04 in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of SC Paderborn 07's recent matches and 45% of FC Schalke 04's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 50% of FC Schalke 04's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of SC Paderborn 07's recent matches and 65% of FC Schalke 04's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Paderborn 07 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Schalke 04.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat FC Schalke 04 3-1 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 2.17 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.30 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.95 / defence 1.05 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.90 / defence 1.31, drawn from 41/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 57% | Draw 22% | FC Schalke 04 22%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 71%, FC Schalke 04 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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