1. FC Kaiserslautern 3-1 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 49%, yet in-form Hansa Rostock provide a compelling counter-argument — this 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hansa Rostock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Kaiserslautern and Hansa Rostock meet at Fritz-Walter-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 September 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
1. FC Kaiserslautern (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. 1. FC Kaiserslautern have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have posted 4W 2D 4L at Fritz-Walter-Stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hansa Rostock have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hansa Rostock have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Hansa Rostock have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Hansa Rostock arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1W, Hansa Rostock 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Hansa Rostock winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Kaiserslautern — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Hansa Rostock — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 58% versus Hansa Rostock 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Kaiserslautern 58% | Hansa Rostock 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.73 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.122 / defence 1.076 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.806 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.744 / away 1.368. Data: 40 1. FC Kaiserslautern games / 40 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 49% | Draw 25% | Hansa Rostock 26%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Hansa Rostock 3.85. 1. FC Kaiserslautern hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hansa Rostock (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Kaiserslautern if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 70% | Hansa Rostock 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Fritz-Walter-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 49% | Draw 25% | Hansa Rostock 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.73 / Hansa Rostock 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.122 / def 1.076 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.806 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.744 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Hansa Rostock xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Fritz-Walter-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hansa Rostock?
1. FC Kaiserslautern 3 - 1 Hansa Rostock.
Where is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Fritz-Walter-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hansa Rostock part of?
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Kaiserslautern a 49% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Kaiserslautern the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both 1. FC Kaiserslautern and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and Hansa Rostock?
Record (2 meetings): 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1W | Draws 0 | Hansa Rostock 1W.
What form are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and Hansa Rostock in?
1. FC Kaiserslautern (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from 1. FC Kaiserslautern's attack rating (1.12) and Hansa Rostock's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hansa Rostock's attack (0.81x) against 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Kaiserslautern Win
49%
2.02
25%
4.01
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
Total xG
2.91
1.19
Hansa Rostock xG
2.02
49%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
18%
5.63
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
5%
22.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.1 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 1.19 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hansa Rostock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Kaiserslautern come into this having played 40 games, going 14W 13D 13L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hansa Rostock sit at 1.25 PPG from 40 outings (15W 5D 20L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for 1. FC Kaiserslautern against 1.25 for Hansa Rostock. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
1. FC Kaiserslautern's home form reads 7W 6D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Hansa Rostock have taken 1.32 points per game from 19 outings (7W 4D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Kaiserslautern are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 1.00 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 40 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Early Season
Hansa Rostock
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 14W 13D 13L in their last 40 games (1.38 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 15W 5D 20L in their last 40 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Kaiserslautern at home or Hansa Rostock away?
1. FC Kaiserslautern's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Kaiserslautern at home: 1.42 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
1. FC Kaiserslautern have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Kaiserslautern won 0-3 on 2 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
1. FC Kaiserslautern
0
Draws
1
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and Hansa Rostock?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have won 3, Hansa Rostock have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Kaiserslautern and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Hansa Rostock 0-3 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and Hansa Rostock?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Kaiserslautern are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 63%, Hansa Rostock 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (1. FC Kaiserslautern) and 42% (Hansa Rostock). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock in 32%; 1. FC Kaiserslautern have failed to score in 26% of games; Hansa Rostock in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Kaiserslautern home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Kaiserslautern play Hansa Rostock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's recent matches and 32% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's matches and 42% of Hansa Rostock's.
Do 1. FC Kaiserslautern and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Kaiserslautern cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hansa Rostock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Kaiserslautern beat Hansa Rostock 3-1 at Fritz-Walter-Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.73 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.19 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Kaiserslautern beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.12 / defence 1.08 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.81 / defence 0.88, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Kaiserslautern 49% | Draw 25% | Hansa Rostock 26%, with 1. FC Kaiserslautern to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Kaiserslautern 58%, Hansa Rostock 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Kaiserslautern's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.38 PPG, Hansa Rostock 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Kaiserslautern win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Kaiserslautern (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.