Hannover 96 1-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hannover 96 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hannover 96 and Fortuna Düsseldorf meet at Heinz von Heiden-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 February 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Hannover 96's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hannover 96, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Heinz von Heiden-Arena, Hannover 96 have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Heinz von Heiden-Arena. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Hannover 96 are significantly better at Heinz von Heiden-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Fortuna Düsseldorf have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.30 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hannover 96 lead 1W to 1W over the last 7 encounters, with 5 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Hannover 96 — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Fortuna Düsseldorf — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hannover 96 59% versus Fortuna Düsseldorf 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hannover 96 59% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hannover 96 1.35 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hannover 96 attack 1.009 / defence 0.858 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.083 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.583. Data: 54 Hannover 96 games / 54 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hannover 96 34% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 40%. Fair-value odds: Hannover 96 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Hannover 96 50% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hannover 96 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Heinz von Heiden-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Feb 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hannover 96 34% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Hannover 96 1.35 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Hannover 96 attack 1.009 / def 0.858 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.083 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.583 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Hannover 96 xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hannover 96 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
Hannover 96 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
What was the final score in Hannover 96 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Hannover 96 1 - 1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is Hannover 96 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
What competition is Hannover 96 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
Hannover 96 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hannover 96 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives Hannover 96 a 34% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hannover 96 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Hannover 96 and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will Hannover 96 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (7 meetings): Hannover 96 1W | Draws 5 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 1W.
What form are Hannover 96 and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
Hannover 96 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hannover 96's attack at 1.01x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack (1.08x) against Hannover 96's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
34%
2.93
26%
3.82
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Hannover 96 xG
Total xG
2.82
1.47
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
8%
12.77
10%
9.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.8 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hannover 96 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hannover 96 and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Hannover 96 and 1.47 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Hannover 96 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Hannover 96 have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 22W 18D 14L record — L-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Hannover 96 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form line: 27W 14D 13L from 54 games, 1.76 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-W. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Hannover 96 against 1.76 for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hannover 96 have posted 2.00 PPG from 26 outings (15W 7D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — Hannover 96 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 15W 7D 4L from 26 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Hannover 96 are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 2.04 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 54 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hannover 96
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hannover 96 and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
Hannover 96 have gone 22W 18D 14L in their last 54 games (1.56 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 27W 14D 13L in their last 54 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hannover 96 at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Hannover 96's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hannover 96 at home: 2.00 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Hannover 96 have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hannover 96 have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Düsseldorf — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hannover 96
6
Draws
1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 10 meetings on record, Hannover 96 have won 3, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Hannover 96 and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Hannover 96 2-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Hannover 96 and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hannover 96 62%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Hannover 96 and 65% for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hannover 96 home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hannover 96 play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Hannover 96's games and 58% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hannover 96 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Hannover 96's matches and 65% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's.
Do Hannover 96 and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
Hannover 96 have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hannover 96 and Fortuna Düsseldorf share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Heinz von Heiden-Arena, Regular Season - 21, as Hannover 96 and Fortuna Düsseldorf drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 1.35 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.47 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 1.01 / defence 0.86 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.08 / defence 0.90, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 34% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 40%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 59%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hannover 96's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hannover 96 1.56 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.