🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this SSV Ulm 1846 vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 21 as SSV Ulm 1846 welcome SC Paderborn 07 to Donaustadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 February 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

SSV Ulm 1846 — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SSV Ulm 1846, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, SSV Ulm 1846 have posted 2W 3D 4L at Donaustadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — SSV Ulm 1846 at 0.90 PPG versus SC Paderborn 07's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Both teams score in over 78% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, SSV Ulm 1846 have won 0, SC Paderborn 07 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

SSV Ulm 1846 trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SSV Ulm 1846 65% and SC Paderborn 07 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Ulm 1846 50% | SC Paderborn 07 70%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Ulm 1846 1.23 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.956 / defence 0.952 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.967 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.541. Data: 20 SSV Ulm 1846 games / 54 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 32% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 41%. Fair-value odds: SSV Ulm 1846 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | SC Paderborn 07 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Paderborn 07 at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SSV Ulm 1846 78% | SC Paderborn 07 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights