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Dominant Hamburger SV run riot with a 6-1 hammering of SSV Ulm 1846.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hamburger SV beat SSV Ulm 1846 6-1 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 33, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.67 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 0.99 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Hamburger SV beat their projection by 4.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.21 / defence 1.07 against SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.70 / defence 0.96, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 52% | Draw 27% | SSV Ulm 1846 21%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 75%, SSV Ulm 1846 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hamburger SV's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.38 average — above their attacking norm. SSV Ulm 1846 (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights