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Dominant Hamburger SV run riot with a 5-0 hammering of SpVgg Greuther Fürth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hamburger SV beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5-0 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 17, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 2.04 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.40 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Hamburger SV beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.24 / defence 0.89 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.00 / defence 1.07, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 51% | Draw 25% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 64%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hamburger SV's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.66 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hamburger SV win broke the near-deadlock. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights